Will New York win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Commissioner's Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$97
2 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2028
734 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will New York win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Commissioner's Cup
Will New York win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Commissioner's Cup?: New York
KXWNBACCUP-26-NY
Cluster 2
Will Las Vegas win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Commissioner's Cup
Will Las Vegas win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Commissioner's Cup?: Las Vegas
KXWNBACCUP-26-LV
Analysis
This 12% probability reflects the odds that New York will win the Women's Pro Basketball Commissioner's Cup in 2026. The relatively low probability suggests New York faces competitive disadvantages compared to other contenders. The main factors driving this level are the team's current roster strength and performance trajectory compared to other Eastern Conference teams, combined with the historical competitiveness of the Commissioner's Cup format. The probability will likely shift significantly following the trade deadline (typically in February) and as the regular season progresses, with the cup tournament itself scheduled to take place mid-season, providing a clear resolution point.
- ›New York's current win-loss record and standing relative to Eastern Conference competitors directly impacts their tournament eligibility and seeding
- ›Roster additions or injuries between now and the cup tournament will alter their competitive position and ability to field a full-strength squad
- ›Historical performance in previous Commissioner's Cup tournaments indicates how well New York typically performs in this specific format versus regular season play
- ›The 12% probability implies New York is roughly 8:1 underdogs, suggesting oddsmakers view at least 6-7 other teams as more likely contenders
- ›Tournament structure and bracket placement will determine the specific path to championship, with favorable matchups potentially improving New York's chances
What moved the line
- Jun 21Las Vegas↑8pp41→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24New York↑6pp41→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Las Vegas↓6pp46→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26New York↑5pp49→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Las Vegas↓5pp49→44¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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