Will Lynne Roberts win Coach of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$158
9 contracts
Closes
Dec 1, 2027
494 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Natalie Nakase win Coach of the Year
Will Natalie Nakase win Coach of the Year?: Natalie Nakase
KXWNBACOY-26-NNAK
Cluster 2
Will Alex Sarama win Coach of the Year
Will Alex Sarama win Coach of the Year?: Alex Sarama
KXWNBACOY-26-ASAR
Cluster 3
Will Cheryl Reeve win Coach of the Year
Will Cheryl Reeve win Coach of the Year?: Cheryl Reeve
KXWNBACOY-26-CREE
Cluster 4
Will Becky Hammon win Coach of the Year
Will Becky Hammon win Coach of the Year?: Becky Hammon
KXWNBACOY-26-BHAM
Cluster 5
Will Jose Fernandez win Coach of the Year
Will Jose Fernandez win Coach of the Year?: Jose Fernandez
KXWNBACOY-26-JFER
Cluster 6
Will Karl Smesko win Coach of the Year
Will Karl Smesko win Coach of the Year?: Karl Smesko
KXWNBACOY-26-KSME
Cluster 7
Will Lynne Roberts win Coach of the Year
Will Lynne Roberts win Coach of the Year?: Lynne Roberts
KXWNBACOY-26-LROB
Cluster 8
Will Nate Tibbets win Coach of the Year
Will Nate Tibbets win Coach of the Year?: Nate Tibbets
KXWNBACOY-26-NTIB
Cluster 9
Will Stephanie White win Coach of the Year
Will Stephanie White win Coach of the Year?: Stephanie White
KXWNBACOY-26-SWHI
Analysis
At 9%, this probability reflects relatively low odds that Lynce Roberts will be named Coach of the Year for the 2025-26 season. The market is heavily concentrated on Joe Mazzulla (94¢), suggesting the favorite has largely consolidated expectations. Roberts' modest probability reflects competition from other strong candidates and the difficulty of winning such awards even when a coach performs well. The primary factors affecting her odds would be her team's win-loss record, playoff performance, and how her achievements compare directly to other finalists. The award will be determined after the NBA season concludes and voting takes place, typically in June, when the full year of coaching performance is evaluated.
- ›Team record and playoff seeding relative to preseason expectations and roster changes
- ›Head-to-head voting competition from higher-probability candidates, particularly Joe Mazzulla and JB Bickerstaff
- ›Whether Roberts' team makes and advances through the playoffs, as playoff success significantly influences Coach of the Year voting
- ›Award voting eligibility and specific voting body composition, which may limit the pool of considered candidates
- ›Media narrative and team improvement trajectory throughout the season compared to other finalist coaches
What moved the line
- Jul 19Stephanie White↓8pp11→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Cheryl Reeve↑5pp56→61¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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