SimpleFunctions
10 contractsKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses Dec 1, 2027 · 571d

Will Lynne Roberts win Coach of the Year

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 10 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

8%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

8%

10 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$592

10 contracts

Closes

Dec 1, 2027

571 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 8% (12 days, 12 points)Aggregate: 8% on 2026-05-07
Aggregate of 10 contracts · 12d

Bracket families

10 clusters across 10 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Sandy Brondello win Coach of the Year

1 contract$282

Cluster 2

Will Cheryl Reeve win Coach of the Year

1 contract$188

Cluster 3

Will Jose Fernandez win Coach of the Year

1 contract$35

Cluster 4

Will Lynne Roberts win Coach of the Year

1 contract$29

Cluster 5

Will Nate Tibbets win Coach of the Year

1 contract$19

Cluster 6

Will Karl Smesko win Coach of the Year

1 contract$18

Cluster 7

Will Becky Hammon win Coach of the Year

1 contract$10

Cluster 8

Will Sonia Raman win Coach of the Year

1 contract$6

Cluster 9

Will Chris DeMarco win Coach of the Year

1 contract$5

Cluster 10

Will Stephanie White win Coach of the Year

1 contract$0

Analysis

At 9%, this probability reflects relatively low odds that Lynce Roberts will be named Coach of the Year for the 2025-26 season. The market is heavily concentrated on Joe Mazzulla (94¢), suggesting the favorite has largely consolidated expectations. Roberts' modest probability reflects competition from other strong candidates and the difficulty of winning such awards even when a coach performs well. The primary factors affecting her odds would be her team's win-loss record, playoff performance, and how her achievements compare directly to other finalists. The award will be determined after the NBA season concludes and voting takes place, typically in June, when the full year of coaching performance is evaluated.

  • Team record and playoff seeding relative to preseason expectations and roster changes
  • Head-to-head voting competition from higher-probability candidates, particularly Joe Mazzulla and JB Bickerstaff
  • Whether Roberts' team makes and advances through the playoffs, as playoff success significantly influences Coach of the Year voting
  • Award voting eligibility and specific voting body composition, which may limit the pool of considered candidates
  • Media narrative and team improvement trajectory throughout the season compared to other finalist coaches

What moved the line

  • May 6Stephanie White5pp105¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Chris DeMarco4pp1612¢ · Kalshi
  • May 7Stephanie White4pp59¢ · Kalshi
  • May 2Stephanie White3pp129¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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