Portland vs Seattle winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$17K
8 contracts
Closes
Jul 10, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Washington vs Connecticut winner” vs “Atlanta vs Golden State winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Washington vs Connecticut winner
Cluster 2
Atlanta vs Golden State winner
Cluster 3
Phoenix vs Toronto winner
Cluster 4
Portland vs Chicago winner
Analysis
This market reflects a nearly even assessment of the likelihood that Portland will defeat Seattle in an upcoming matchup. At 49%, the probability suggests neither team is favored, indicating considerable uncertainty about the outcome. The current price point likely reflects recent team performance metrics, head-to-head history, and any available injury or roster information. Movements in this probability would depend on how each team performs leading up to the game, changes in player availability, and any shifts in relative form. The specific matchup details—venue, timing, and each team's current momentum—would be primary drivers of whether the probability moves meaningfully toward either side before the contest is resolved.
- ›Current market price of 49% from 6 Kalshi contracts shows no strong consensus favorite between the two teams
- ›Trading volume across related sports contracts varies significantly (from $169 to $2,361 in 24h volume), suggesting differing liquidity and confidence levels across the betting markets
- ›The probability represents a statistical dead heat, meaning small changes in team form or circumstances could shift the expected outcome materially
- ›Resolution depends on the actual match outcome, which will be determined by in-game performance rather than pre-match expectations
- ›Market prices on related contests (Chicago-Connecticut at 58% and Toronto-Atlanta at 12%) indicate active pricing across multiple simultaneous events
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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