Will Rickea Jackson win Most Improved Player
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$153
12 contracts
Closes
Dec 1, 2027
437 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jessica Shepard win Most Improved Player in the 2026 season
Will Jessica Shepard win Most Improved Player in the 2026 season?: Jessica Shepard
KXWNBAMIMP-26-JSHEPARD32
Cluster 2
Will Aliyah Boston win Most Improved Player
Will Aliyah Boston win Most Improved Player?: Aliyah Boston
KXWNBAMIMP-26-ABOSTON7
Cluster 3
Will Gabby Williams win Most Improved Player
Will Gabby Williams win Most Improved Player?: Gabby Williams
KXWNBAMIMP-26-GWILLIAMS1
Cluster 4
Will Kamilla Cardoso win Most Improved Player
Will Kamilla Cardoso win Most Improved Player?: Kamilla Cardoso
KXWNBAMIMP-26-KCARDOSO10
Cluster 5
Will Kiki Iriafen win Most Improved Player
Will Kiki Iriafen win Most Improved Player?: Kiki Iriafen
KXWNBAMIMP-26-KIRIAFEN44
Cluster 6
Will Marina Mabrey win Most Improved Player in the 2026 season
Will Marina Mabrey win Most Improved Player in the 2026 season?: Marina Mabrey
KXWNBAMIMP-26-MMABREY3
Cluster 7
Will Maddy Siegrist win Most Improved Player
Will Maddy Siegrist win Most Improved Player?: Maddy Siegrist
KXWNBAMIMP-26-MSIEGRIST20
Cluster 8
Will Natasha Mack win Most Improved Player
Will Natasha Mack win Most Improved Player?: Natasha Mack
KXWNBAMIMP-26-NMACK4
Cluster 9
Will Rae Burrell win Most Improved Player
Will Rae Burrell win Most Improved Player?: Rae Burrell
KXWNBAMIMP-26-RBURRELL12
Cluster 10
Will Rickea Jackson win Most Improved Player
Will Rickea Jackson win Most Improved Player?: Rickea Jackson
KXWNBAMIMP-26-RJACKSON5
Cluster 11
Will Shakira Austin win Most Improved Player in the 2026 season
Will Shakira Austin win Most Improved Player in the 2026 season?: Shakira Austin
KXWNBAMIMP-26-SAUSTIN0
Cluster 12
Will Tie/Co-Winners win Most Improved Player
Will Tie/Co-Winners win Most Improved Player?: Tie/Co-Winners
KXWNBAMIMP-26-TIE
Analysis
This 16% probability reflects market expectations that Rickea Jackson will be named WNBA Most Improved Player for the 2026 season. The award typically goes to players showing significant statistical improvements year-over-year, making Jackson's performance trajectory relative to her 2025 baseline the central question. The current probability suggests markets view her as a moderate contender but not among the frontrunners—competitors like Aliyah Boston (7¢) are priced slightly higher. The award will be determined following the WNBA regular season and playoffs, with voting typically conducted by media and fans. Jackson's probability could shift based on her season scoring, efficiency, defensive metrics, and team performance. The resolution will occur after the 2026 WNBA season concludes, likely in September or October.
- ›Jackson's scoring average and field goal percentage compared to her 2025 season baseline
- ›Number of games played and availability relative to the prior season—injury-free campaigns typically advantage improvement narratives
- ›Team winning record and playoff success—award voters often weight contribution to team competitiveness
- ›Narrative competition from peers like Boston and Brink, whose baseline performance and room for improvement will be evaluated comparatively
- ›Advanced metrics including true shooting percentage, assist-to-turnover ratio, and defensive rating improvements over the prior year
What moved the line
- Sep 17Jessica Shepard↓17pp78→61¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Shakira Austin↑13pp3→16¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Jessica Shepard↑11pp61→72¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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