Will Olivia Miles win Rookie of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
11 contracts
Closes
Dec 1, 2027
571 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Azzi Fudd win Rookie of the Year
Will Azzi Fudd win Rookie of the Year?: Azzi Fudd
KXWNBAROY-26-AFUDD35
Cluster 2
Will Olivia Miles win Rookie of the Year
Will Olivia Miles win Rookie of the Year?: Olivia Miles
KXWNBAROY-26-OMILES5
Cluster 3
Will Flau'jae Johnson win Rookie of the Year
Will Flau'jae Johnson win Rookie of the Year?: Flau'jae Johnson
KXWNBAROY-26-FJOHNSON4
Cluster 4
Will Georgia Amoore win Rookie of the Year
Will Georgia Amoore win Rookie of the Year?: Georgia Amoore
KXWNBAROY-26-GAMOORE8
Cluster 5
Will Lauren Betts win Rookie of the Year
Will Lauren Betts win Rookie of the Year?: Lauren Betts
KXWNBAROY-26-LBETTS51
Cluster 6
Will Raven Johnson win Rookie of the Year
Will Raven Johnson win Rookie of the Year?: Raven Johnson
KXWNBAROY-26-RJOHNSON3
Cluster 7
Will Awa Fam win Rookie of the Year
Will Awa Fam win Rookie of the Year?: Awa Fam
KXWNBAROY-26-AFAM11
Cluster 8
Will Tie/Co-Winners win Rookie of the Year
Will Tie/Co-Winners win Rookie of the Year?: Tie/Co-Winners
KXWNBAROY-26-TIE
Cluster 9
Will Ta'Niya Latson win Rookie of the Year
Will Ta'Niya Latson win Rookie of the Year?: Ta'Niya Latson
KXWNBAROY-26-TLATSON
Cluster 10
Will Gianna Kneepkens win Rookie of the Year
Will Gianna Kneepkens win Rookie of the Year?: Gianna Kneepkens
KXWNBAROY-26-GKNEEPKENS5
Cluster 11
Will Cotie McMahon win Rookie of the Year
Will Cotie McMahon win Rookie of the Year?: Cotie McMahon
KXWNBAROY-26-CMCMAHON23
Analysis
This 18% probability reflects the likelihood that Olivia Miles wins the Rookie of the Year award. The current estimate appears driven by competition from other strong offensive and defensive rookie candidates, with Carson Beck priced at 4¢ and several defensive prospects including Rueben Bain Jr. at 17¢ showing material support. Miles' probability could increase if she demonstrates exceptional performance metrics relative to peers throughout the 2026 season, or decrease if other rookies establish clearer statistical leads. The market will resolve once the Rookie of the Year award is officially announced, typically occurring after the regular season concludes in early 2027. Trading volume across these contracts suggests moderate interest but no consensus frontrunner, with probabilities distributed across multiple candidates rather than concentrated on a single player.
- ›Offensive and defensive rookie candidates are fragmented across multiple contracts, with Carson Beck at 4¢ and Rueben Bain Jr. at 17¢ representing the highest individual probabilities
- ›Rookie of the Year awards typically depend on cumulative season statistics and voting panels, which will not be finalized until after the 2026 NFL regular season ends
- ›Miles' 18% probability places her outside the top individual contract prices shown, suggesting market participants view other rookies as stronger candidates based on current performance
- ›Trading volume is relatively light across these markets ($2,357 in 24-hour volume across the top 5 contracts), indicating limited certainty or engagement from traders
- ›The award voting typically occurs in December-January, providing approximately 7-8 months for player performance and injury status to shift competitive positioning
What moved the line
- May 6Raven Johnson↓89pp96→7¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Awa Fam↑32pp1→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Awa Fam↓28pp33→5¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Azzi Fudd↓16pp35→19¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Lauren Betts↑10pp13→23¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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