Washington vs Atlanta
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$684
12 contracts
Closes
May 24, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Phoenix vs Las Vegas: Over 1” vs “Dallas vs Indiana: Over 1”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Phoenix vs Las Vegas: Over 1
Cluster 2
Dallas vs Indiana: Over 1
Cluster 3
Chicago vs Portland: Over 1
Cluster 4
Atlanta vs Minnesota: Over 1
Analysis
This 17% probability represents the market's assessment that Washington will win an upcoming matchup against Atlanta. The odds heavily favor Atlanta at 72 cents, indicating either significant strength from the visiting team or weakness from Washington as the apparent home team. Trading volume on the winner contract ($409 in 24 hours) suggests moderate interest from bettors. The probability could shift based on team performance trends, injury reports, or roster changes in the days leading up to the game. Point-total markets show minimal activity, with traders pricing high-scoring outcomes at low probability, suggesting expectations for a closer, lower-scoring contest. Resolution will occur when the game is played and final results are recorded.
- ›Atlanta is priced at 72 cents to win versus Washington at 27 cents, a roughly 2.7:1 odds ratio favoring Atlanta
- ›Winner contract volume of $409 in 24 hours indicates moderate but not exceptional betting interest compared to major matchups
- ›Point-total markets show minimal trading volume ($0 across all three spread levels), suggesting low confidence in specific scoring predictions
- ›The 17% Washington probability implies bettors consider them significant underdogs, likely due to recent performance, matchup dynamics, or roster composition
- ›No injury reports, schedule changes, or other major catalysts are reflected in available contract data as of the current observation point
What moved the line
- May 7Over 160.5 points scored↑18pp2→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Over 169.5 points scored↑18pp2→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Over 174.5 points scored↑12pp2→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Over 165.5 points scored↑11pp2→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Over 169.5 points scored↑9pp20→29¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.