England vs India Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$39K
19 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
5 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Sri Lanka vs Scotland Winner” vs “England vs New Zealand Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Sri Lanka vs Scotland Winner
Cluster 2
England vs New Zealand Winner
Cluster 3
Australia vs India Winner
Cluster 4
Pakistan vs Netherlands Winner
Cluster 5
West Indies vs Ireland Winner
Cluster 6
South Africa vs Bangladesh Winner
Cluster 7
Norway vs Luxembourg Winner
Cluster 8
Derbyshire Falcons vs Gloucestershire Winner
Cluster 9
Luxembourg vs Czechia Winner
Cluster 10
Czechia vs Norway Winner
Czechia vs Norway Winner?: Norway
KXWT20MATCH-26JUN270500NORCZE-NOR
Analysis
This 35% probability reflects a prediction that England will defeat India in an upcoming match. The probability reflects India's recent strong performance across formats, with their 62-cent valuation in a separate India vs South Africa market suggesting market confidence in their current form. England's lower probability reflects recent inconsistency, though their 77-cent valuation against Scotland indicates they remain competitive against certain opponents. The primary factors influencing this probability are each team's recent match results, player fitness and availability, and head-to-head record in relevant conditions. Resolution depends on the scheduled England vs India match being completed as scheduled, with the outcome determined by standard cricket rules.
- ›India's current rating against South Africa (62 cents) suggests the market views them as strong favorites in bilateral matchups
- ›England's rating against Scotland (77 cents) indicates competitive but not dominant form relative to other strong teams
- ›The 35% probability implies a significant gap in expected performance between the two teams based on recent playing patterns
- ›Match-specific factors like venue conditions, recent team injuries, or last-minute lineup changes would directly affect the probability if disclosed
- ›The absence of comparable historical pricing data prevents analysis of whether this probability represents movement from prior expectations
What moved the line
- Jun 21West Indies↑56pp8→64¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21England↑46pp14→60¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22South Africa↑43pp14→57¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Sri Lanka↑33pp34→67¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25South Africa↑33pp53→86¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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