Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.2 million active clear plus members in Q2 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
1 contracts
Closes
Sep 3, 2026
28 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.6 million active clear plus members in Q2 2026
Analysis
This 78% probability indicates markets expect Clear Secure to report at least 8.2 million active Clear+ members in Q2 2026. The metric tracks subscription adoption for the company's expedited airport security program, a key revenue driver. The probability reflects confidence in continued membership growth, though quarterly membership fluctuations depend on enrollment trends, retention rates, and competitive pressures. Q2 results will be released in late July or early August 2026, when Clear Secure reports its second-quarter earnings. Markets price substantially lower odds for higher thresholds (38% for 8.4M, 15% for 8.6M, 5% for 8.8M), suggesting consensus expects growth but with meaningful uncertainty around the magnitude. Historical membership trends, airport traffic patterns, and subscription pricing changes all influence the final count.
- ›Clear Secure's Q1 2026 membership baseline and reported growth rate serve as the primary predictor for Q2 performance
- ›Quarterly membership changes typically correlate with travel volumes and seasonality, making summer airport traffic patterns material
- ›Competitive dynamics from other biometric/expedited security programs could affect Clear+ adoption or retention rates
- ›The company's pricing and promotional strategies in H1 2026 directly influence enrollment conversion and churn
- ›Historical quarterly growth cadence shows whether 8.2M represents baseline or optimistic scenario relative to recent trends
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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