Will Burna Boy be #1 on YouTube Charts' Daily Top Music Videos - United States in August 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$195
4 contracts
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
29 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Ariana Grande be #1 on YouTube Charts' Daily Top Music Videos - United States in August 2026
Cluster 2
Will Ella Langley be #1 on YouTube Charts' Daily Top Music Videos - United States in August 2026
Cluster 3
Will KATSEYE be #1 on YouTube Charts' Daily Top Music Videos - United States in August 2026
Cluster 4
Will Ice Spice be #1 on YouTube Charts' Daily Top Music Videos - United States in August 2026
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Burna Boy will reach the #1 position on YouTube's daily top music videos chart for the United States at some point during August 2026. The 50% aggregated probability sits between the individual contract prices, suggesting genuine uncertainty about whether Burna Boy's content will outperform competitors during this specific month. Key drivers include whether Burna Boy releases new music in early August with sufficient promotional push, and how aggressively competing artists like Lil Baby (61¢) and Ella Langley (3¢) pursue chart placement. The outcome depends on cumulative daily chart performance throughout August, making the exact timing and volume of music releases the critical factor. Resolution occurs automatically as August progresses and daily YouTube chart data becomes public record.
- ›Whether Burna Boy releases new single or music video in August 2026 and its promotional intensity
- ›Timing and competitive landscape of releases from higher-probability artists (Lil Baby at 61¢, Moneybagg Yo at 3¢) during the same period
- ›Historical YouTube chart velocity for Burna Boy's previous releases relative to US market engagement patterns
- ›Volume of competing releases from trending US artists in August 2026
- ›YouTube's specific methodology for daily top music videos ranking and whether it measures views, engagement, or other metrics
What moved the line
- Jul 30Ice Spice↓28pp35→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 31Ariana Grande↓20pp30→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30KATSEYE↓14pp33→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30Ella Langley↓12pp18→6¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1KATSEYE↓12pp20→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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