Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 7% taco bell same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026
Leader sits at 95% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 93%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 2%
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
93¢
Above -1%
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$145
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2027
274 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above
Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 4% taco bell same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 4%
KXYUMA-27FEBTBSSS-4
Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 6% taco bell same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 6%
KXYUMA-27FEBTBSSS-6
Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 5% taco bell same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 5%
KXYUMA-27FEBTBSSS-5
Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 8% taco bell same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 8%
KXYUMA-27FEBTBSSS-8
Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 7% taco bell same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 7%
KXYUMA-27FEBTBSSS-7
Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 3% taco bell same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 3%
KXYUMA-27FEBTBSSS-3
Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 2% taco bell same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 2%
KXYUMA-27FEBTBSSS-2
Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above -1% kfc same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above -1%
KXYUMA-27FEBKFCSSS-N1.0
Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 3% kfc same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 3%
KXYUMA-27FEBKFCSSS-3
Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 2% kfc same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 2%
KXYUMA-27FEBKFCSSS-2
Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 1% kfc same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 1%
KXYUMA-27FEBKFCSSS-1
Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 0% kfc same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 0%
KXYUMA-27FEBKFCSSS-0
Analysis
This contract reflects market expectations that Taco Bell will achieve same-store sales growth exceeding 7% in fiscal 2026. The 97% probability indicates traders believe this outcome is highly likely, but the sharp price drop across the threshold contracts—from 74¢ at 4% growth to just 18¢ at 7% growth—reveals concentration of uncertainty in the 4-7% range. Resolution depends on Yum! Brands' fiscal 2026 earnings report, which typically occurs in early 2027. Key drivers include consumer demand for value-oriented quick-service restaurants, pricing power, menu innovation at Taco Bell, and broader economic conditions affecting discretionary spending. The low contract volume ($178 in 24-hour trading) suggests limited market depth, so the 97% headline price reflects relatively few transactions and should be interpreted cautiously.
- ›Taco Bell's historical same-store sales growth trends and whether 7%+ is consistent with or significantly above recent performance
- ›Macroeconomic conditions through fiscal 2026, particularly consumer spending patterns in the QSR value segment
- ›Pricing actions and promotional strategy at Taco Bell relative to competitor responses and elasticity dynamics
- ›The sharp probability cliff between 4% and 7% growth thresholds, suggesting most traders cluster expectations between 4-6%
- ›Trading volume and depth are minimal ($178/day), indicating the 97% price reflects thin liquidity and may not represent robust consensus
What moved the line
- Jul 30Above -1%↓14pp98→84¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 29Above 2%↑14pp79→93¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 29Above -1%↑13pp85→98¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30Above 6%↓12pp37→25¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Above 4%↑11pp67→78¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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