Will Alabama qualify for the College Football Playoffs

The yield curve for this event family is entirely flat, with all 50 constituent markets sharing an identical tenor of 222 days to resolution. This uniformity prevents traditional curve analysis—there is no steepening, flattening, or inversion to observe. Within this single tenor bucket, probabilities vary dramatically across teams, ranging from 1.0% (Arkansas) to 81.0% (Notre Dame), reflecting differentiated assessments of individual team playoff qualification odds rather than time-based probability dynamics. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster in the 1–5% range (Arkansas, Arizona, Arkansas State, FSU, Missouri, North Carolina State, TCU, Tulane, UNT, Vanderbilt), while the most expensive sit at 68–81% (Miami, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, UGA). Volume concentration on higher-probability teams—particularly USC ($140.67), Oklahoma ($129.48), and Oregon ($12.94)—suggests active trading in the favorites. The flat structure with uniform tenor implies the market is pricing a single, well-defined resolution event occurring 222 days forward, likely the 2025 College Football Playoff selection announcement or a related postseason cutoff. The absence of a yield curve prevents inference about whether the market expects earlier or later resolution; instead, the probability distribution reflects pure team-by-team qualification risk. The high concentration of volume on mid-to-high probability teams (Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Oklahoma) indicates these are the focal points of uncertainty, while the long tail of sub-5% probabilities represents consensus long-shots. The market is essentially pricing a snapshot of playoff likelihood as of a fixed future date, not a term structure of evolving expectations.