NO FAKES Act · Will legislation
NO FAKES Act is priced at 25¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 19¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside Will legislation.
Price history
25¢ current
+7¢Contract brief
If legislation that establishes a federal intellectual-property right protecting individuals’ voices and visual likenesses from unauthorized digital replicas has become law after Issuance and before ||date||, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
NO FAKES Act
Rank
#8 of 16
Leader
Housing for the 21st Century Act 94¢
Range
5¢-94¢
Family volume
$96K
Identifier
KXBILLS-FAKES
Jun 25, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
19¢
Ask
26¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$320
Family rank
#8 of 16
16 outcomes · Will legislation
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$96K
Orderbook snapshot
19 / 26¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If legislation that establishes a federal intellectual-property right protecting individuals’ voices and visual likenesses from unauthorized digital replicas has become law after Issuance and before ||date||, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXBILLS-FAKES
Event family
Will legislation.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$96K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Housing for the 21st Century Act 94¢
Current share
0%
Housing for the 21st Century Act
kalshi · KXBILLS-HOUS
DEFIANCE Act
kalshi · KXBILLS-DEFY
ROTOR Act
kalshi · KXBILLS-ROTOR
Railway safety bill
kalshi · KXBILLS-26MAY-RAIL
Critical-minerals stockpile
kalshi · KXBILLS-MIN
Jewish American security
kalshi · KXBILLS-JSEC
JAWBONE Act
kalshi · KXBILLS-26-JAWB
NO FAKES Act
kalshi · KXBILLS-FAKES
E15 year-round sales
kalshi · KXBILLS-E15
FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)
kalshi · KXBILLS-FISA
Surface transportation reauthorization
kalshi · KXBILLS-SURF
$2.50 Coin
kalshi · KXBILLS-250C
White House ballroom funding
kalshi · KXBILLS-BALL
Trump Airport
kalshi · KXBILLS-AIRP
Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday
kalshi · KXBILLS-DJTB
SELF DRIVE Act
kalshi · KXBILLS-DRIVE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle
Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 25% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.