Will Roddy Ricch have a top 10 song this year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$34
18 contracts
Closes
Dec 26, 2026
231 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Gracie Abrams have a top 10 song this year
Will Gracie Abrams have a top 10 song this year?: Gracie Abrams
KX10SONG-26-GRA
Cluster 2
Will Charli xcx have a top 10 song this year
Will Charli xcx have a top 10 song this year?: Charli xcx
KX10SONG-26-XCX
Cluster 3
Will KATSEYE have a top 10 song this year
Will KATSEYE have a top 10 song this year?: KATSEYE
KX10SONG-26-KAT
Cluster 4
Will Kanye West / Ye have a top 10 song this year
Will Kanye West / Ye have a top 10 song this year?: Kanye West / Ye
KX10SONG-26-KAN
Cluster 5
Will Chris Brown have a top 10 song this year
Will Chris Brown have a top 10 song this year?: Chris Brown
KX10SONG-26-CHR
Cluster 6
Will Rihanna have a top 10 song this year
Will Rihanna have a top 10 song this year?: Rihanna
KX10SONG-26-RIH
Cluster 7
Will Nicki Minaj have a top 10 song this year
Will Nicki Minaj have a top 10 song this year?: Nicki Minaj
KX10SONG-26-NIC
Cluster 8
Will Drake have a top 10 song this year
Will Drake have a top 10 song this year?: Drake
KX10SONG-26-DRA
Cluster 9
Will The Weeknd have a top 10 song this year
Will The Weeknd have a top 10 song this year?: The Weeknd
KX10SONG-26-WEE
Cluster 10
Will Ariana Grande have a top 10 song this year
Will Ariana Grande have a top 10 song this year?: Ariana Grande
KX10SONG-26-ARI
Cluster 11
Will Ed Sheeran have a top 10 song this year
Will Ed Sheeran have a top 10 song this year?: Ed Sheeran
KX10SONG-26-ED
Cluster 12
Will Travis Scott have a top 10 song this year
Will Travis Scott have a top 10 song this year?: Travis Scott
KX10SONG-26-TRA
Cluster 13
Will Eminem have a top 10 song this year
Will Eminem have a top 10 song this year?: Eminem
KX10SONG-26-EMI
Cluster 14
Will Billie Eilish have a top 10 song this year
Will Billie Eilish have a top 10 song this year?: Billie Eilish
KX10SONG-26-BIL
Cluster 15
Will Kendrick Lamar have a top 10 song this year
Will Kendrick Lamar have a top 10 song this year?: Kendrick Lamar
KX10SONG-26-KEN
Cluster 16
Will Post Malone have a top 10 song this year
Will Post Malone have a top 10 song this year?: Post Malone
KX10SONG-26-POS
Cluster 17
Will J Balvin have a top 10 song this year
Will J Balvin have a top 10 song this year?: J Balvin
KX10SONG-26-JBA
Cluster 18
Will Future have a top 10 song this year
Will Future have a top 10 song this year?: Future
KX10SONG-26-FUT
Analysis
This represents the probability that Roddy Ricch will chart a song in the top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 at some point during 2026. At 14%, the market is pricing in a relatively low likelihood, reflecting his reduced mainstream presence compared to his 2018-2020 peak when he charted multiple hits including "The Box." The main factors driving this assessment are his recent release frequency and chart performance trajectory. Roddy Ricch would need to either release new music that gains significant streaming and radio traction, or experience an unexpected viral moment. The primary uncertainty resolves throughout the year as new music releases occur and chart data accumulates; there is no single scheduled event, but new singles or features would be the key catalysts that could shift this probability materially higher or lower.
- ›Roddy Ricch has not charted a top 10 solo song since 2020, suggesting diminished commercial momentum compared to his earlier career peak
- ›His last major charting success was "The Box" in 2019-2020; current market probability is lower than comparable artists like J. Cole (19¢) and Chris Brown (28¢)
- ›New music releases or high-profile features remain the primary mechanism to achieve top 10 status, with streaming numbers and radio adoption as measurable indicators
- ›Chart performance in Q2-Q4 2026 will directly determine outcome; the 14% probability implies markets view a top 10 hit as unlikely absent major new release activity
- ›Comparable artists show variable probabilities (9¢ to 28¢), indicating market uncertainty about which established artists will break through in 2026
What moved the line
- May 7Charli xcx↑5pp15→20¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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