SimpleFunctions
10 source contracts·Kalshi 10·refreshed just now·Closes Dec 26, 2026 · 75d

Will Roddy Ricch have a top 10 song this year

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 10 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

19%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

19%

10 contracts

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$0

10 contracts

Closes

Dec 26, 2026

75 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 18% (4 days, 4 points)Aggregate: 18% on 2026-09-25
Aggregate of 10 contracts · 4d

Bracket families

10 clusters across 10 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Chappell Roan have a top 10 song this year

1 contract$0

Cluster 2

Will SZA have a top 10 song this year

1 contract$0

Cluster 3

Will Dolly Parton have a top 10 song this year

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will Luke Combs have a top 10 song this year

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Yeat have a top 10 song this year

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Don Toliver have a top 10 song this year

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will A$AP Rocky have a top 10 song this year

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Lil Baby have a top 10 song this year

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will Billie Eilish have a top 10 song this year

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will BLACKPINK have a top 10 song this year

1 contract$0

Analysis

This probability reflects that Roddy Ricch has a 26% chance of landing a top 10 song on the Billboard Hot 100 during 2026. His current standing relative to comparable artists—notably higher than Chris Brown (8%) but lower than Billie Eilish (29%)—suggests moderate market confidence in his ability to achieve chart success this year. The main factors driving this level are his recent release activity and streaming performance, as well as whether he secures feature collaborations with high-profile artists. The resolution depends primarily on which songs receive radio promotion and gain streaming traction, with clarity emerging as songs are released and tracked on the Billboard Hot 100 chart in real-time throughout 2026.

  • ›Roddy Ricch's chart performance in H1 2026 to date compared to his historical baseline of top 10 entries
  • ›The volume and commercial viability of his scheduled music releases for the remainder of 2026
  • ›Whether he secures feature collaborations with artists having stronger chart momentum than him
  • ›Radio station playlisting decisions and promotional push from his label in the coming months
  • ›Competitive landscape shifts if other artists' releases cannibalize streaming and chart positioning

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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