Will Roddy Ricch have a top 10 song this year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$26
15 contracts
Closes
Dec 26, 2026
144 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Don Toliver have a top 10 song this year
Will Don Toliver have a top 10 song this year?: Don Toliver
KX10SONG-26-DON
Cluster 2
Will BLACKPINK have a top 10 song this year
Will BLACKPINK have a top 10 song this year?: BLACKPINK
KX10SONG-26-BLA
Cluster 3
Will Nicki Minaj have a top 10 song this year
Will Nicki Minaj have a top 10 song this year?: Nicki Minaj
KX10SONG-26-NIC
Cluster 4
Will Gracie Abrams have a top 10 song this year
Will Gracie Abrams have a top 10 song this year?: Gracie Abrams
KX10SONG-26-GRA
Cluster 5
Will 21 Savage have a top 10 song this year
Will 21 Savage have a top 10 song this year?: 21 Savage
KX10SONG-26-21S
Cluster 6
Will 2 Chainz have a top 10 song this year
Will 2 Chainz have a top 10 song this year?: 2 Chainz
KX10SONG-26-2CH
Cluster 7
Will Addison Rae have a top 10 song this year
Will Addison Rae have a top 10 song this year?: Addison Rae
KX10SONG-26-ADD
Cluster 8
Will A$AP Rocky have a top 10 song this year
Will A$AP Rocky have a top 10 song this year?: A$AP Rocky
KX10SONG-26-ASA
Cluster 9
Will Lil Baby have a top 10 song this year
Will Lil Baby have a top 10 song this year?: Lil Baby
KX10SONG-26-BAB
Cluster 10
Will Benson Boone have a top 10 song this year
Will Benson Boone have a top 10 song this year?: Benson Boone
KX10SONG-26-BEN
Cluster 11
Will Beyoncé have a top 10 song this year
Will Beyoncé have a top 10 song this year?: Beyoncé
KX10SONG-26-BEY
Cluster 12
Will Billie Eilish have a top 10 song this year
Will Billie Eilish have a top 10 song this year?: Billie Eilish
KX10SONG-26-BIL
Cluster 13
Will Calvin Harris have a top 10 song this year
Will Calvin Harris have a top 10 song this year?: Calvin Harris
KX10SONG-26-CAL
Cluster 14
Will Central Cee have a top 10 song this year
Will Central Cee have a top 10 song this year?: Central Cee
KX10SONG-26-CEN
Cluster 15
Will Charlie Puth have a top 10 song this year
Will Charlie Puth have a top 10 song this year?: Charlie Puth
KX10SONG-26-CHA
Analysis
This probability reflects that Roddy Ricch has a 26% chance of landing a top 10 song on the Billboard Hot 100 during 2026. His current standing relative to comparable artists—notably higher than Chris Brown (8%) but lower than Billie Eilish (29%)—suggests moderate market confidence in his ability to achieve chart success this year. The main factors driving this level are his recent release activity and streaming performance, as well as whether he secures feature collaborations with high-profile artists. The resolution depends primarily on which songs receive radio promotion and gain streaming traction, with clarity emerging as songs are released and tracked on the Billboard Hot 100 chart in real-time throughout 2026.
- ›Roddy Ricch's chart performance in H1 2026 to date compared to his historical baseline of top 10 entries
- ›The volume and commercial viability of his scheduled music releases for the remainder of 2026
- ›Whether he secures feature collaborations with artists having stronger chart momentum than him
- ›Radio station playlisting decisions and promotional push from his label in the coming months
- ›Competitive landscape shifts if other artists' releases cannibalize streaming and chart positioning
What moved the line
- Jul 30Lil Baby↓10pp37→27¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Nicki Minaj↓5pp25→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30Central Cee↓5pp14→9¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22 Chainz↓4pp6→2¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 32 Chainz↑4pp2→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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