Will Trump next nominate Rick Rieder as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Leader sits at 38% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Stephen Miran
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Kevin Hassett
Spread
34pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump next nominate
Will Trump next nominate Kevin Hassett as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?: Kevin Hassett
KXFEDGOVNOM-27-KHAS
Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?: Stephen Miran
KXFEDGOVNOM-27-SMIR
Will Trump next nominate Rick Rieder as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?: Rick Rieder
KXFEDGOVNOM-27-RRIE
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Rick Rieder, a prominent bond manager and financial executive, will be nominated to the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors during Trump's presidency. The 26% aggregate probability suggests traders view it as possible but not the most likely outcome for an open seat. The 13-percentage-point gap between Polymarket and Kalshi indicates disagreement about Rieder's chances, potentially reflecting different assessments of Trump's nomination strategy and Rieder's political alignment. Key drivers include Rieder's experience in monetary policy discussions, his track record in financial markets, and whether Trump prioritizes loyalty, technical expertise, or ideological alignment in Fed appointments. Resolution depends on whether Trump nominates someone for a Fed vacancy—either through natural retirements, the current board composition, or changes in Fed leadership. The timing remains uncertain, as Fed board vacancies typically occur on staggered schedules.
- ›Rieder's current role and public statements on monetary policy relative to Trump's stated preferences on Fed policy
- ›Number and timing of actual Federal Reserve Board vacancies that will occur during Trump's term
- ›Historical pattern of Trump's Fed nominations and whether they emphasize financial industry experience versus other criteria
- ›Polymarket-Kalshi divergence of 13pp suggests market uncertainty about Trump's selection priorities and Rieder's relative position among potential nominees
- ›Any public indication from Trump or Rieder about Fed board appointment interest or discussions
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.