Will Trump next nominate Rick Rieder as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Leader sits at 7% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Stephen Miran
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Judy Shelton
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
145 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump next nominate
Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?: Judy Shelton
KXFEDGOVNOM-27-JSHE
Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?: Stephen Miran
KXFEDGOVNOM-27-SMIR
Will Trump next nominate Rick Rieder as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?: Rick Rieder
KXFEDGOVNOM-27-RRIE
Will Trump next nominate Michelle Bowman as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?: Michelle Bowman
KXFEDGOVNOM-27-MBOW
Will Trump next nominate Kevin Hassett as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?: Kevin Hassett
KXFEDGOVNOM-27-KHAS
Analysis
This reflects the estimated probability that Rick Rieder will be Trump's next Federal Reserve Board nominee, currently at 24% as the leading candidate in a four-outcome prediction market. The probability is driven by Rieder's background in finance and prior policy discussions, though he faces competition from other potential nominees like Stephen Miran and Kevin Hassett. The main factors affecting this probability are shifts in Trump's economic policy priorities, any public statements signaling his Federal Reserve appointment strategy, and developments in the broader political and economic environment that might make certain candidates more or less attractive. Resolution will occur when Trump either makes a public nomination announcement or the window for such appointments closes. Until then, the probability reflects genuine uncertainty about Trump's final selection from the candidate pool.
- ›Rieder's current role and visibility in financial/policy circles relative to competing nominees
- ›Public signals from Trump or his advisors about Federal Reserve appointment preferences
- ›Turnover or vacancy announcements on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- ›Changes in economic conditions or policy debates that might shift preference toward specific candidate profiles
- ›Any direct statements or media reporting about which candidates are under serious consideration
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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