ADP employment change in Nov 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

Markets are pricing an extremely high probability that ADP employment changes in November 2026 will remain above -25,000 jobs—meaning essentially flat or positive job growth rather than net losses. This reflects current expectations for labor market resilience. The probability level is driven primarily by baseline economic forecasts showing continued modest hiring, though it could shift if recession indicators or deteriorating leading employment metrics emerge between now and November. The actual ADP employment report for November 2026, typically released in early December, will directly resolve this outcome. Markets assign much lower confidence to stronger hiring scenarios (above 75,000 or 100,000 jobs), suggesting consensus expectations are for tepid rather than robust job creation.

• ›ADP employment change outcomes for August through October 2026 will establish the trajectory; a series of weak months could reduce confidence in positive November readings
• ›Initial jobless claims and continuing claims data through fall 2026 will signal labor market tightness; rising claims would pressurize the current high probability downward
• ›ISM manufacturing and services employment indices leading into November serve as early signals of hiring momentum in the final months of the quarter
• ›GDP growth forecasts and Fed policy expectations through summer and fall 2026 will shape whether labor market softening is priced into employment numbers
• ›Historical volatility in ADP payroll reports suggests meaningful forecast uncertainty exists despite current market pricing at 95 percent

What moved the line

• May 6Above 50000↑5pp42→47¢ · Kalshi
• May 7Above 50000↑5pp47→52¢ · Kalshi
• May 6Above 100000↑4pp8→12¢ · Kalshi
• May 7Above 100000↑3pp12→15¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds