Will Dustin Darden qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska Senate race
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10K
4 contracts
Closes
Aug 17, 2028
728 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Gerald Heikes qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska Senate race
Will Gerald Heikes qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska Senate race?: Gerald Heikes
KXAKSENADVANCE-26AUG18-GHEI
Cluster 2
Will David Leslie qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska Senate race
Will David Leslie qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska Senate race?: David Leslie
KXAKSENADVANCE-26AUG18-DLES
Cluster 3
Will Fred C. Grauberger qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska Senate race
Cluster 4
Will Shirley Saucerman qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska Senate race
Analysis
This probability represents the estimated chance that Dustin Darden will advance to Alaska's general election runoff in the 2026 Senate race. At 38%, the market suggests Darden is a credible but uncertain contender among multiple candidates competing for one of two runoff spots. The main factors influencing this level include Darden's current standing in polling relative to frontrunners like Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan (who show near-certain probabilities of advancing), as well as donor support and campaign infrastructure. The primary uncertainty catalyst will be the August primary election, when Alaska's ranked-choice voting system determines which two candidates proceed to the general election. Polling data releases and candidate announcements in the coming months will also help clarify the competitive landscape and likely shift expectations.
- ›Darden's performance relative to top-tier candidates Peltola and Sullivan, whose individual probabilities exceed 90%
- ›Total number and strength of competing candidates dividing the non-frontrunner vote
- ›Voter preference patterns in Alaska's ranked-choice primary system, which requires securing sufficient first and secondary preferences
- ›Polling data releases between now and the August 19, 2026 primary election
- ›Campaign fundraising and spending relative to other mid-tier candidates
What moved the line
- Aug 19David Leslie↑54pp3→57¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20David Leslie↑20pp57→77¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Gerald Heikes↑10pp14→24¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Gerald Heikes↑8pp6→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 13Fred C. Grauberger↓7pp12→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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