Will Alaska Governor winner be Democratic party and Alaska Senate winner be Democratic party
Leader sits at 34% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Democrats sweep
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
Republicans sweep
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
458 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Alaska Governor winner
Will Alaska Governor winner be Democratic party and Alaska Senate winner be Democratic party?: Democrats sweep
KXAKSENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-DEMDEM
Will Alaska Governor winner be Republican party and Alaska Senate winner be Republican party?: Republicans sweep
KXAKSENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-REPREP
Will Alaska Governor winner be Republican party and Alaska Senate winner be Democratic party?: Republican Governor, Democratic Senator
KXAKSENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-REPDEM
Will Alaska Governor winner be Democratic party and Alaska Senate winner be Republican party?: Democratic Governor, Republican Senator
KXAKSENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-DEMREP
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Democrats will win both Alaska's 2026 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections. Currently priced at 39 cents, a Democratic sweep is considered less likely than a Republican sweep (43 cents) but substantially more probable than split outcomes. The pricing reflects Alaska's historical Republican lean in statewide races, though Democratic strength can vary by office and candidate quality. The main factors pushing this probability would be candidate recruitment, campaign momentum, and voter enthusiasm differences between the two parties heading into the general election. The November 2026 midterm elections will resolve all uncertainty around these outcomes.
- ›Alaska has voted Republican in 8 of the last 9 gubernatorial elections and 5 of the last 6 Senate races, establishing structural Republican advantage
- ›Democratic Senate candidate performance depends partly on incumbent or challenger positioning; some cycles see stronger Democratic Senate recruiting than gubernatorial performance
- ›Recent Alaska election turnout patterns and primary results (occurring earlier in 2026) will signal relative party strength and candidate viability before November
- ›Campaign spending and outside group investment in both races will indicate which party views Alaska as a winnable priority state
- ›November 2026 general election results will definitively resolve the outcome, as both races are decided simultaneously
What moved the line
- Jul 31Republican Governor, Democratic Senator↓3pp25→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 28Republicans sweep↑3pp30→33¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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