Who will win the 2026 GA-13 special election
Leader sits at 80% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Marcye Scott
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
Everton Blair Jr.
Spread
66pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jul 28, 2027
366 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the 2026 GA-13 special election
Analysis
The 2026 Georgia 13th congressional district special election shows Everton Blair Jr. with a 71% estimated probability of winning, based on aggregated market contracts. This reflects trader expectations about which candidate will secure the seat in this special election. The current probability differential suggests Blair Jr. holds a significant structural or polling advantage over the field, with nearest competitor Marcye Scott at 15%. Movement in this probability would likely stem from new polling data, candidate endorsements, fundraising disclosures, or campaign developments that alter perceptions of electability. The special election date itself represents the critical uncertainty-resolving event—once voting concludes, the outcome becomes known. Until then, market prices reflect incomplete information about voter preferences, turnout patterns, and campaign momentum heading into election day.
- ›Blair Jr. commands 71% implied probability versus 15% for Scott and 14% combined for four other candidates, indicating substantial perceived structural advantage
- ›Kalshi contract volume is concentrated in Scott's contract ($383 24h), suggesting active disagreement about the second-place finisher despite Blair's frontrunner status
- ›No polling data, campaign finance reports, or endorsement details provided in market snapshot—probability is based on trader aggregation of available information
- ›The special election date and voting rules (runoff requirements if applicable) will determine if single-ballot plurality or threshold mechanisms apply
- ›Market prices reflect a 29% collective probability assigned to all non-Blair candidates combined, capturing uncertainty about potential consolidation or surprise candidacy shifts
What moved the line
- Jul 25Everton Blair Jr.↓15pp48→33¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 26Marcye Scott↑13pp54→67¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 27Everton Blair Jr.↓11pp28→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 27Marcye Scott↑8pp67→75¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 25Marcye Scott↑7pp47→54¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (80% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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