Will Noah Kahan's 'The Great Divide' debut at #1
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 82% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
82%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$274
2 contracts
Closes
Aug 10, 2026
44 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will Ariana Grande's 'petal' debut at #1” vs “Will Gracie Abrams's 'Daughter From Hell ' debut at #1: Daughter From Hell”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Ariana Grande's 'petal' debut at #1
Will Ariana Grande's 'petal' debut at #1?: petal
KXALBUMDEBUT-26AUG15-PET
Cluster 2
Will Gracie Abrams's 'Daughter From Hell ' debut at #1: Daughter From Hell
Will Gracie Abrams's 'Daughter From Hell ' debut at #1: Daughter From Hell
KXALBUMDEBUT-26AUG01-DAU
Analysis
This probability estimates an 81% chance that Noah Kahan's album 'The Great Divide' will debut at the top of the Billboard 200 chart. The forecast reflects expectations based on pre-release metrics, artist momentum, and competitive landscape. Factors supporting a #1 debut include Kahan's established fanbase and recent chart performance, while competing releases from artists like Ariana Grande (94% probability for 'petal') and Gracie Abrams (68% for 'Daughter From Hell') represent downside risk. The outcome will be determined when Billboard releases official chart data following the album's release week, making the resolution date—typically one week after the release date—the key catalyst for settling this contract.
- ›Noah Kahan's previous album chart performance and current streaming/presale metrics relative to the release week
- ›Competing album releases during the same tracking week, particularly Ariana Grande's 'petal' at 94% probability which could split the market
- ›Release date and day-of-week alignment affecting eligibility and chart positioning in the tracking week
- ›Fan pre-order volumes and chart manipulation signals (playlist placement, bundle sales) reported before release
- ›Billboard's final chart methodology application, including how international streams and catalog data factor into debut positioning
What moved the line
- Jun 26Daughter From Hell↓3pp72→69¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (82% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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