Will Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 105

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract estimates a 51% probability that Amazon credit card spending will exceed $105 billion in August 2026. The current pricing reflects modest confidence in above-threshold spending, with prices remaining stable across the $102-$106 band, suggesting market uncertainty about the exact outcome. Historical Amazon spending patterns, seasonal consumer behavior in August, and macroeconomic conditions through mid-to-late August will be primary drivers. The resolution depends on official August credit card volume data, typically reported in early September, which will either confirm or refute the current market positioning. Notably, the $0 trading volume across all contracts indicates minimal recent price discovery, suggesting the 51% level may not reflect active consensus but rather stale equilibrium pricing.

• ›August 2026 represents the back-to-school and end-of-summer period, a traditionally elevated spending month that could push totals above $105B
• ›Year-over-year Amazon credit card spending growth rates and any announced changes to rewards programs or shopping incentives through August
• ›Macroeconomic conditions including consumer credit availability, inflation, and employment levels as of late August 2026
• ›Comparison to historical August spending baselines and the established range across the $102-$106 band, where all thresholds show 51% or near-51% probability
• ›The zero 24-hour trading volume suggests no new information has updated market prices; actual data release in early September will be the definitive resolution event

What moved the line

• Aug 5Above 110↑30pp21→51¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Above 109↑27pp18→45¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Above 111↑22pp10→32¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 6Above 103↑20pp67→87¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 6Above 110↓19pp51→32¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds