Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles City Council District 1 election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 87% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
87%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
452 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles City Council District 1 election
Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles City Council District 1 election?: Eunisses Hernandez
KXLA1-26-EHER
Analysis
The prediction market assigns an 88% probability that Eunisses Hernandez will win the 2026 Los Angeles City Council District 1 election, reflecting current expectations about the race outcome. This high probability typically reflects either strong incumbency advantage, significant polling leads, or limited viable challengers in the district. The level could shift based on candidate entry or withdrawal, major scandal, significant shifts in voter registration, or endorsement patterns from influential local figures. The election itself on November 3, 2026 will ultimately resolve this uncertainty, though primary results or candidate announcements beforehand could cause material probability adjustments.
- ›Incumbency status and previous election performance of Eunisses Hernandez in District 1
- ›Number, quality, and fundraising capacity of competing candidates who have officially entered the race
- ›Voter registration trends and demographic shifts in the district since the last election
- ›Major endorsements from elected officials, labor unions, or other institutional actors in Los Angeles politics
- ›Any significant controversies, voting record changes, or scandal involving the frontrunner or challengers
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (87% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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