Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary
Leader sits at 68% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Russell Fry
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
Ralph Norman
Spread
59pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$125K
liquid
Closes
Aug 11, 2027
394 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary
Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Russell Fry
KXSCRSENS-26-RFRY
Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Darline Graham Nordone
KXSCRSENS-26-DNOR
Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Pamela Evette
KXSCRSENS-26-PEVE
Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Mark Lynch
KXSCRSENS-26-MLYN
Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Ralph Norman
KXSCRSENS-26-RNOR
Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Henry McMaster
KXSCRSENS-26-HMCM
Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Trey Gowdy
KXSCRSENS-26-TGOW
Analysis
Pamela Evette is currently priced as the frontrunner in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary, with market participants assigning her a 46% probability of winning. This reflects traders' current assessment of her relative strength against other GOP candidates including Mark Lynch (7%), Russell Fry (15%), Ralph Norman (12%), and Nancy Mace (3%). The primary outcome will be determined when South Carolina Republicans vote, with the winner facing the Democratic nominee in the general election. Key drivers of Evette's current position include her political profile and name recognition, though the substantial gap between her 46% price and the runner-up at 18% suggests meaningful uncertainty about final primary performance. The election date and campaign developments over coming months will test whether Evette maintains her current market advantage or whether consolidation around alternative candidates reshapes the race.
- ›Pamela Evette holds 46% implied probability versus 54% for all other candidates combined, indicating a competitive field despite her current market leadership
- ›Mark Lynch at 7% and Russell Fry at 15% represent the nearest alternatives, with their combined share suggesting the non-Evette vote is fragmented across multiple candidates
- ›Nancy Mace's 3% price despite statewide profile indicates low market confidence in her primary viability in this particular race
- ›Twenty-four-hour trading volume concentration in Evette and Lynch contracts ($10,772 and $11,926 respectively) shows active disagreement on the frontrunner among traders
- ›The special primary timing and field composition remain subject to candidate entry/exit decisions and endorsement announcements that could rapidly shift relative positioning
What moved the line
- Jul 13Pamela Evette↓8pp51→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 13Russell Fry↑5pp13→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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