Will Kaela Berg be the Democratic (DFL) nominee for MN-2
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$156
3 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
93 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Matt Little be the Democratic (DFL) nominee for MN-2
Will Matt Little be the Democratic (DFL) nominee for MN-2?: Matt Little
KXMN2D-26-MLIT
Cluster 2
Will Kaela Berg be the Democratic (DFL) nominee for MN-2
Will Kaela Berg be the Democratic (DFL) nominee for MN-2?: Kaela Berg
KXMN2D-26-KBER
Cluster 3
Will Matt Klein be the Democratic (DFL) nominee for MN-2
Will Matt Klein be the Democratic (DFL) nominee for MN-2?: Matt Klein
KXMN2D-26-MKLE
Analysis
This market estimates a 27% chance that Kaela Berg becomes the Democratic nominee for Minnesota's 2nd congressional district. The probability reflects uncertainty about Berg's standing in what could be a competitive DFL primary, influenced by factors such as candidate field strength, fundraising performance, and endorsement patterns within Minnesota's Democratic Party. The nomination outcome will depend on Berg's ability to consolidate support among DFL delegates and primary voters against potential challengers. Key upcoming catalysts include formal candidate announcements, fundraising reports, and any party endorsements that could signal momentum shifts before the nominating process concludes.
- ›Berg's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to other DFL primary candidates
- ›Explicit endorsements from Minnesota DFL party leadership, elected officials, and unions representing labor-heavy districts
- ›Early polling or straw polls among DFL primary voters and party delegates if conducted
- ›The total number of credible candidates entering the DFL primary and their respective name recognition
- ›Berg's performance at candidate forums and debates, if held before the nominating process
What moved the line
- Jul 31Matt Little↑3pp72→75¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 29Matt Klein↑3pp2→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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