Will Travis Grantham be the Republican nominee for AZ-5
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$21K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
103 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-5
Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-5?: Mark Lamb
KXAZ5R-26-MLAM
Cluster 2
Will Daniel Keenan be the Republican nominee for AZ-5
Will Daniel Keenan be the Republican nominee for AZ-5?: Daniel Keenan
KXAZ5R-26-DKEE
Analysis
This probability reflects trader expectations that Travis Grantham will win the Republican primary for Arizona's 5th congressional district. The 80% level suggests Grantham is viewed as the clear frontrunner, though not yet certain. Primary outcomes depend on candidate field composition, endorsement patterns, and voter preferences in this particular district. The election in August 2026 will definitively resolve this question. Until then, shifts in this probability would likely track changes in candidate announcements, polling data if released, or endorsement moves by local Republican party figures. Campaign funding and on-the-ground organization differences between candidates could also influence the outcome.
- ›Whether Mark Lamb or other candidates enter the race, as candidate field size significantly affects primary math
- ›Public polling results or internal polling leaks showing voter preferences among Republican primary voters in AZ-5
- ›Endorsements from Arizona Republican establishment figures, particularly the state party chair or current Arizona delegation members
- ›Campaign finance data showing funding disparities and resource allocation among declared candidates
- ›Turnout patterns in the Republican primary relative to historical AZ-5 election cycles, as turnout composition can shift primary dynamics
What moved the line
- Jul 22Daniel Keenan↓4pp12→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Mark Lamb↑3pp88→91¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (50% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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