Will Maria Flores be the Democratic nominee for AZ-08
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 54% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
54%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$696
7 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
496 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Kai Newkirk be the Democratic nominee for AZ-04
Will Kai Newkirk be the Democratic nominee for AZ-04?: Kai Newkirk
KXAZPRIMARY-04D26-KNEW
Cluster 2
Will Greg Stanton be the Democratic nominee for AZ-04
Will Greg Stanton be the Democratic nominee for AZ-04?: Greg Stanton
KXAZPRIMARY-04D26-GSTA
Cluster 3
Will Raymond Keeler be the Democratic nominee for AZ-08
Will Raymond Keeler be the Democratic nominee for AZ-08?: Raymond Keeler
KXAZPRIMARY-08D26-RKEE
Cluster 4
Will Bernadette Greene Placentia be the Democratic nominee for AZ-08
Will Bernadette Greene Placentia be the Democratic nominee for AZ-08?: Bernadette Greene Placentia
KXAZPRIMARY-08D26-BPLA
Cluster 5
Will Elizabeth Lee be the Democratic nominee for AZ-05
Will Elizabeth Lee be the Democratic nominee for AZ-05?: Elizabeth Lee
KXAZPRIMARY-05D26-ELEE
Cluster 6
Will Zuhdi Jasser be the Republican nominee for AZ-04
Will Zuhdi Jasser be the Republican nominee for AZ-04?: Zuhdi Jasser
KXAZPRIMARY-04R26-ZJAS
Cluster 7
Will Chris James be the Democratic nominee for AZ-05
Will Chris James be the Democratic nominee for AZ-05?: Chris James
KXAZPRIMARY-05D26-CJAM
Analysis
This probability reflects the odds that Maria Flores will win the Democratic primary for Arizona's 8th congressional district. Currently priced at 30%, Flores ranks behind frontrunner Bernadette Greene Placentia (67%) and competitor Raymond Keeler (25%) in market expectations. The probability depends on primary election dynamics, candidate fundraising levels, endorsements from party officials, and recent polling data in the district. The AZ-08 Democratic primary will ultimately resolve this uncertainty when voters cast ballots. Market participants are calibrating these odds based on each candidate's demonstrated organizational strength, name recognition, and ability to mobilize voters in this competitive race.
- ›Bernadette Greene Placentia holds 67% probability, suggesting markets view her as the clear frontrunner with superior resources or polling
- ›Raymond Keeler at 25% probability indicates at least two other viable candidates are splitting support
- ›Combined probability of named candidates (Flores, Greene Placentia, Keeler) totals 122%, suggesting either market overlap or unnamed candidates receiving non-zero probability
- ›Primary election date and ballot access deadlines will constrain candidate field and clarify viability
- ›Fundraising totals and recent polling from reputable AZ-08 sources would directly inform whether market pricing reflects current ground conditions
What moved the line
- Jun 20Chris James↑10pp10→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Elizabeth Lee↓6pp78→72¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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