Will Eduardo Girão win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$20
2 contracts
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
407 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election
Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?: Elmano de Freitas
KXCEARAGOV-26OCT04-EFRE
Cluster 2
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?: Ciro Gomes
KXCEARAGOV-26OCT04-CGOM
Analysis
This probability reflects the current market assessment that Eduardo Girão has a 33% chance of winning the Ceará gubernatorial election in 2026. Girão trails significantly behind Ciro Gomes, who is priced at 66% and represents the current frontrunner, while incumbent Elmano de Freitas shows 28% probability. The market appears to be pricing in Girão's name recognition as a federal senator but positioning him behind two more established figures in state politics. The probability could shift based on campaign dynamics, endorsement announcements, and polling releases leading up to election day. The election itself, scheduled for October 2026, will ultimately resolve this contract when results are confirmed.
- ›Ciro Gomes holds 66% contract price compared to Girão's 5¢, suggesting markets view him as the clear frontrunner
- ›Incumbent governor Elmano de Freitas at 28% indicates fragmentation among establishment candidates
- ›Eduardo Girão's federal senate profile versus limited recent gubernatorial track record in Ceará state politics
- ›Campaign financing disclosures and major endorsements typically influence state election markets 3-6 months before voting
- ›Public polling data from reputable firms will likely move these probabilities once released in Q3 2026
What moved the line
- Aug 17Elmano de Freitas↓21pp31→10¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Ciro Gomes↑8pp59→67¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Elmano de Freitas↑7pp27→34¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Ciro Gomes↓7pp71→64¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Elmano de Freitas↑6pp15→21¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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