Will Chick-fil-A Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 102

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability indicates market expectations that Chick-fil-A credit card spending will exceed $102 million in August 2026, with forecasters assessing roughly even odds. The market is pricing in baseline consumer spending patterns, seasonal summer traffic, and any macroeconomic headwinds affecting discretionary spending. August spending typically reflects mid-summer consumer behavior, including back-to-school preparation and vacation season activity. The key uncertainty centers on whether actual credit card transaction volumes will land above or below the $102 million threshold. Resolution will occur when Chick-fil-A releases or confirms August 2026 credit card spending data. The tight clustering of probabilities around 48-53% across the $101-104 range suggests forecasters view this outcome as highly uncertain, with limited conviction in either direction. Notable is the sharp drop to 36% at the $105 million level, indicating spending above that point is considered less likely by current market participants.

• ›Seasonal August traffic patterns and back-to-school consumer spending trends
• ›Macroeconomic conditions affecting discretionary fast-casual dining expenditures in summer 2026
• ›Historical Chick-fil-A credit card spend volatility and baseline monthly transaction volumes
• ›Credit card payment adoption rates relative to cash and other payment methods at Chick-fil-A locations
• ›Data release date and methodology for confirming August 2026 credit card spending figures

What moved the line

• Aug 6Above 104↓10pp52→42¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Above 101↑9pp57→66¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 9Above 101↑9pp66→75¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 6Above 105↓9pp39→30¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Above 102↑8pp55→63¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds