7 contractsKalshirefreshed 4 min agoCloses Sep 29, 2026 · 143d

Will Fabiano Caruana be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 62% across 7 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

62%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

62%

7 contracts

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$699

7 contracts

Closes

Sep 29, 2026

143 days

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

Aggregate of 7 contracts · 3d

Bracket families

7 clusters across 7 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Hikaru Nakamura be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament

1 contract$600

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Hikaru Nakamura be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?: Hikaru Nakamura

KXCHESSOLYMPIADUSA-26-HNAK

76¢—$600K→

Cluster 2

Will Hans Niemann be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament

1 contract$99

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Hans Niemann be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?: Hans Niemann

KXCHESSOLYMPIADUSA-26-HNIE

75¢+1pp$99K→

Cluster 3

Will Levon Aronian be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Levon Aronian be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?: Levon Aronian

KXCHESSOLYMPIADUSA-26-LARO

86¢—$0K→

Cluster 4

Will Wesley So be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Wesley So be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?: Wesley So

KXCHESSOLYMPIADUSA-26-WSO

86¢—$0K→

Cluster 5

Will Leinier Domínguez Pérez be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Leinier Domínguez Pérez be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?: Leinier Domínguez Pérez

KXCHESSOLYMPIADUSA-26-LDOM

21¢—$0K→

Cluster 6

Will Awonder Liang be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Awonder Liang be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?: Awonder Liang

KXCHESSOLYMPIADUSA-26-ALIA

5¢—$0K→

Cluster 7

Will Fabiano Caruana be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Fabiano Caruana be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?: Fabiano Caruana

KXCHESSOLYMPIADUSA-26-FCAR

86¢—$0K→

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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