Will Cook Islands Party win the 2026 Cook Islands general election

30-day trend

Analysis

The Cook Islands Party is currently assigned a 24% probability of winning the 2026 general election, implying a roughly 3-to-1 odds against victory. This reflects market expectations relative to other major parties competing—the Democratic Party trades at 36%, while One Cook Islands Movement and Cook Islands United Party each trade at 3%. The current estimate suggests the Democratic Party enters as the frontrunner in market expectations, though no single party commands majority probability. The Cook Islands holds general elections once every four years; the election date and campaign dynamics will determine whether this probability shifts significantly. Factors shaping the Cook Islands Party's chances include recent polling data, campaign momentum, coalition-building possibilities, voter sentiment on key local issues, and leadership performance. The actual election date will provide the definitive resolution, with final results expected to clarify which party secured the most parliamentary seats.

• ›The Cook Islands Party's 24% probability ranks third among the four major parties tracked, behind the Democratic Party (36%) and substantially ahead of One Cook Islands Movement and Cook Islands United Party (3% each)
• ›Market concentration shows 55¢ on Cook Islands Party contracts compared to 36¢ on Democratic Party, suggesting price discovery remains active and relative valuations may shift with new information
• ›The election outcome depends on parliamentary seat distribution across multiple constituencies; coalition dynamics and strategic alliances could significantly alter winning probabilities from current baseline estimates
• ›Recent polling results, campaign announcements, leadership changes, or major policy shifts specific to Cook Islands domestic politics would typically drive probability movements in prediction markets for elections
• ›The scheduled 2026 election date provides a definitive resolution point; as the election date approaches, historical patterns show prediction markets typically narrow probability ranges based on accumulated campaign information

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds