Coventry City FC vs. Wrexham AFC
Leader sits at 34% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Kansas City
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
Kansas City
Spread
21pp
contested
24h volume
$962
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 22, 2027
242 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC
Analysis
The 34% probability reflects traders' assessment that Kansas City has roughly a one-in-three chance of winning the NFL AFC West Division. This price is elevated because Kansas City has dominated the division for years, though the outcome depends heavily on divisional performance gaps. The division structure means Kansas City must outperform three competitors: Denver, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas. The 2026 NFL season's progression will provide the primary catalyst for resolving this market, with weekly games beginning in September determining actual win-loss records. The current price balances Kansas City's historical strength against the inherent unpredictability of a single season, where injuries, trades, and coaching changes can shift divisional outcomes significantly.
- ›Kansas City's win-loss record relative to other AFC West teams during the 2026 regular season will directly determine the outcome
- ›Injury status of key players on Kansas City and competing teams (Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles) affects roster strength and offensive/defensive capabilities
- ›Playoff tiebreaker scenarios could determine division winner if multiple teams finish with identical records
- ›Historical division performance trends show Kansas City has won multiple recent AFC West titles, but divisional strength varies year to year
- ›The market price of 34% implies a roughly 2-to-1 probability against Kansas City relative to all other divisional outcomes combined
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (34% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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