Denver Summit FC vs. San Diego Wave FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 36%, Polymarket at 16% — a 20pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
36%
16 contracts
Polymarket
16%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
20pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$59K
19 contracts
Closes
Oct 31, 2028
912 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 36¢ · Polymarket 16¢ · 20pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (16¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (36¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
11 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Chicago WS vs San Diego
Chicago WS vs San Diego Winner?: Chicago WS
KXMLBGAME-26MAY031610CWSSD-CWS
Chicago WS vs San Diego Winner?: San Diego
KXMLBGAME-26MAY031610CWSSD-SD
Chicago WS vs San Diego First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY031610CWSSD
Chicago WS vs San Diego Total Runs?: Over 12.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031610CWSSD-13
Cluster 2
Will San Diego
Will San Diego be the 2026 NL West Division Winner: San Diego
KXMLBNLWEST-26-SD
Will San Diego win the 2026 Pro Baseball National League Championship?: San Diego
KXMLBNL-26-SD
Will San Diego win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins
KXMLBWINS-SD-26-T85
Will San Diego win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins
KXMLBWINS-SD-26-T90
Cluster 3
San Diego Wave FC vs Bay FC Winner
Cluster 4
San Diego wins by over 1.5 runs
San Diego wins by over 1.5 runs?: San Diego wins by over 1.5 runs
KXMLBSPREAD-26MAY031610CWSSD-SD2
Cluster 5
San Diego vs San Francisco Winner
San Diego vs San Francisco Winner?: San Diego
KXMLBGAME-26MAY042145SDSF-SD
Cluster 6
Will Robelis Despaigne win the Junior Dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne UFC fight in Round 1: Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1
Cluster 7
MLB World Series Champion 2026: San Diego Padres
MLB World Series Champion 2026: San Diego Padres
0x99ff02…bf65
Cluster 8
Will either competitor win the Junior Dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne fight by decision or the fight result in a draw/no contest: Decision / Draw / No Contest
Cluster 9
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC: Ulsan HD FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC: Ulsan HD FC
0x7f5e73…c050
Cluster 10
Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego
Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego
KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-SD
Cluster 11
MLB: 2026 NL West Champion : San Diego Padres
MLB: 2026 NL West Champion : San Diego Padres
0x90803d…aa8b
What moved the line
- May 3San Diego Wave FC↑52pp14→66¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1↓21pp42→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 1San Diego↑15pp44→59¢ · Kalshi
- May 3San Diego↑12pp34→46¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28San Diego Padres↑11pp5→16¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.