Denver Summit FC vs. San Diego Wave FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$182
3 contracts
Closes
Oct 31, 2028
858 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Will San Diego win at least” vs “Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will San Diego win at least
Cluster 2
Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego
Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego
KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-SD
Analysis
This 18% probability reflects market expectations that San Diego will win the 2026 National League Championship. The significant 18-point gap between Kalshi (23%) and Polymarket (5%) suggests disagreement about San Diego's playoff viability, with Kalshi traders pricing in higher qualification odds while Polymarket remains skeptical. Market participants are evaluating whether San Diego can sustain competitive performance through the regular season and postseason. The upcoming months will clarify San Diego's trajectory as teams accumulate wins and playoff positioning becomes clearer. Resolution depends on the team's ability to reach the playoffs and subsequently advance through multiple championship rounds.
- ›Kalshi's 23% probability versus Polymarket's 5% reveals a substantial divergence in how markets assess San Diego's championship chances, suggesting uncertainty about underlying team performance expectations
- ›Trading volume is concentrated on season-win thresholds (90+ and 85+ games) rather than championship odds, indicating market focus on regular-season performance as a leading indicator
- ›The Padres' standing in the NL West race and their ability to qualify for the playoffs at all represents the primary driver—championship probability cannot materialize without postseason entry
- ›Cross-venue probability gaps of 18 percentage points typically reflect different trader compositions and risk appetites rather than access to material new information
- ›Historical context matters: the market's current pricing can be compared against preseason expectations and year-to-date win-loss records once sufficient games are played
What moved the line
- Jun 20San Diego↓11pp30→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24San Diego↑9pp22→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25San Diego↑9pp31→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19San Diego↑4pp26→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2485+ wins↑4pp24→28¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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