Denver Summit FC vs. San Diego Wave FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$22
4 contracts
Closes
Oct 31, 2028
862 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Will San Diego” vs “Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will San Diego
Cluster 2
Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego
Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego
KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-SD
Analysis
This 36% probability reflects the aggregate expectation that Denver Summit FC will defeat San Diego Wave FC in an upcoming match. The probability sits slightly below an even split, suggesting markets view San Diego as a modest favorite. The level appears driven by recent team form, head-to-head records, and current roster availability. Movement in this probability would likely follow team lineup announcements, recent performance trends, or injury updates for key players. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the scheduled match date, which will either confirm or contradict the current market assessment of relative team strength.
- ›Recent win-loss records and goal differential for both Denver and San Diego over the past 8-10 matches
- ›Availability status of key offensive or defensive players for each team heading into the fixture
- ›Historical head-to-head results between these two clubs, including venue performance if applicable
- ›Current league standings and playoff implications that might affect team motivation or tactical approach
- ›Pre-match team news released within 48 hours of kickoff, including starting lineup confirmations
What moved the line
- Jun 20San Diego↓11pp30→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17San Diego↓10pp32→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1885+ wins↓7pp27→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1890+ wins↓7pp14→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1785+ wins↓5pp32→27¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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