Denver Summit FC vs. San Diego Wave FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
28%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$668
3 contracts
Closes
Oct 31, 2028
814 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Will San Diego win at least” vs “Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will San Diego win at least
Cluster 2
Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego
Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego
KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-SD
Analysis
The 18% probability reflects the market's assessment that Denver Summit FC will defeat San Diego Wave FC in an upcoming match. The prediction is based on three related contracts tracking San Diego's win totals and playoff prospects for the 2026 season. The current level suggests market participants view Denver as the favored side, though the low trading volume on longer-term contracts indicates limited conviction. Resolution depends on whether San Diego can maintain competitive form through the season—their performance in remaining games determines both playoff qualification odds and season win totals. The actual match outcome will be known on the scheduled game date, while season-long projections will clarify as more games conclude and San Diego's final record becomes apparent.
- ›San Diego's current win total and remaining schedule directly influence both their playoff probability and season win projections
- ›The 85-win threshold (22¢) versus 90-win threshold (7¢) shows sharp probability drops, indicating where market participants see meaningful performance breakpoints
- ›Playoff qualification (17¢) is priced higher than 90-win achievement, suggesting the market views division/conference dynamics as relevant to playoff odds
- ›Trading volume remains at or near zero on multi-outcome contracts, indicating low market participation and potentially higher uncertainty bands
- ›Denver's roster strength, recent form, and head-to-head history against San Diego would factor into the match-specific 18% probability versus broader season projections
What moved the line
- Aug 285+ wins↑6pp31→37¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3San Diego↑4pp37→41¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5San Diego↑4pp40→44¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6San Diego↓4pp44→40¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 385+ wins↑4pp37→41¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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