What will AeroVironment, Inc. say during their next earnings call
Leader sits at 71% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 68%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Taiwan
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
68¢
Supply Chain
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$20K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
187 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will AeroVironment, Inc. say during their next earnings call
What will AeroVironment, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Orbit
KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVAV-26JUN29-ORBI
What will AeroVironment, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tailwind
KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVAV-26JUN29-TAIL
What will AeroVironment, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: AV Halo
KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVAV-26JUN29-AV
What will AeroVironment, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: NATO
KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVAV-26JUN29-NATO
What will AeroVironment, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Headwind
KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVAV-26JUN29-HEAD
What will AeroVironment, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Golden Dome
KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVAV-26JUN29-GOLD
What will AeroVironment, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Taiwan
KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVAV-26JUN29-TAIW
What will AeroVironment, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Class Action
KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVAV-26JUN29-CLAS
What will AeroVironment, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Backpackable
KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVAV-26JUN29-BACK
What will AeroVironment, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Robot / Robotic / Robotics
KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVAV-26JUN29-ROBO
What will AeroVironment, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Supply Chain
KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVAV-26JUN29-SUPP
What will AeroVironment, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Iran
KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVAV-26JUN29-IRAN
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations about what AeroVironment will discuss during their next earnings call, with traders currently assigning 79% confidence to the leading outcome. AeroVironment is a defense contractor specializing in unmanned aircraft systems, and geopolitical developments directly influence investor focus on specific regions or programs. The company's earnings calls typically address operational performance, customer demand, and policy developments affecting their business segments. Trading volume concentrates on mentions of Iran-related sanctions impacts (49¢), the Taiwan situation (51¢), and specific programs like AV Halo and Tailwind. Resolution hinges on the actual earnings call transcript and when it occurs—likely sometime in the next quarter based on typical corporate reporting schedules. Market participants are pricing in which topics will receive material discussion based on recent news cycles and defense spending trends.
- ›AeroVironment's primary customer is the U.S. Department of Defense; geopolitical tensions in Iran and Taiwan regions directly affect procurement priorities and policy discussions
- ›Recent defense budget allocations, military aid packages, or congressional committee actions regarding specific unmanned systems programs could shift which topics management emphasizes
- ›The timing of the next earnings call (typically following end of fiscal quarter) and recent company announcements about new contracts, partnerships, or operational challenges will constrain what management can or must discuss
- ›Trading volume concentration on specific outcomes (Iran at $567 24h volume vs. others below $250) suggests asymmetric information or conviction among some market participants
- ›Historical earnings call transcripts and management guidance patterns indicate whether geopolitical topics or specific programs are typically discussed versus shelved as proprietary
What moved the line
- Jun 27Golden Dome↓15pp74→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 27Headwind↑11pp40→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 27Taiwan↑9pp63→72¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 27Class Action↑9pp16→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 27Iran↑7pp60→67¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will James Talarico say during 2026 Texas Democratic Convention - Friday General Sessionlast 87% · 0d
- Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 69% · 2d
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 3d
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 8d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.