Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Connie Chan in CA-11 before Nov 3, 2026
Leader sits at 68% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 48%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Claire Valdez
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
48¢
Darializa Avila Chevalier
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$18
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
69 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Darializa Avila Chevalier in NY-13 before Nov 3, 2026?: Darializa Avila Chevalier
KXENDORSEAOC-26NOV03-DCHE
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Claire Valdez in NY-07 before Nov 3, 2026?: Claire Valdez
KXENDORSEAOC-26NOV03-CVAL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Connie Chan in CA-11 before Nov 3, 2026?: Connie Chan
KXENDORSEAOC-26NOV03-CCHA
Analysis
This contract resolves yes if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez publicly endorses Connie Chan in California's 11th congressional district before Election Day 2026. At 46 cents on Kalshi, traders estimate roughly a 46% probability of this endorsement occurring. AOC has selectively endorsed progressive candidates in competitive races; whether she backs Chan depends on Chan's viability as a candidate, her policy alignment with AOC's platform, and AOC's bandwidth for endorsing candidates outside her own state. The primary catalyst would be Chan's performance in California's primary in June 2026, which would signal whether AOC views her as a viable general election candidate worth amplifying. Endorsement timing typically clusters in the final months before the general election.
- ›CA-11 primary results in June 2026 will determine if Chan advances to the general election as a frontrunner worthy of national progressive endorsement
- ›AOC's historical endorsement patterns show selective support for progressive candidates in competitive races; her track record indicates which candidate profiles and district dynamics trigger her involvement
- ›Connie Chan's campaign messaging, fundraising trajectory, and polling relative to opponents will indicate whether she appears viable enough to merit endorsement investment from a national political figure
- ›Competing endorsement opportunities for AOC in other races (NY-07, Michigan Senate, Maine Senate) may affect her bandwidth and whether CA-11 becomes a priority
- ›The timing window closes November 3, 2026; endorsements typically occur 2-3 months before Election Day, making September-October 2026 the most likely period for any resolution
What moved the line
- Aug 19Claire Valdez↓17pp68→51¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Claire Valdez↑12pp55→67¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Darializa Avila Chevalier↓10pp50→40¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Connie Chan↓5pp14→9¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Darializa Avila Chevalier↑4pp45→49¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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