Will Donald Trump endorse James Fishback in Florida's gubernatorial election (primary or general) before Aug 18, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$485
1 contracts
Closes
Aug 18, 2026
54 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Candace Owens endorse James Fishback in Florida's gubernatorial election (primary or general) before Aug 18, 2026
Analysis
This probability measures whether Donald Trump will publicly endorse James Fishback for Florida governor in either the primary or general election before August 18, 2026. The 26% probability reflects Trump's established pattern of selective endorsements in 2026 races, tempered by uncertainty about Fishback's profile within Trump's coalition and the timeline remaining. Upward pressure would come from Fishback gaining traction in polling or fundraising, while lower probabilities would reflect Trump endorsing a competing candidate or declining to engage in the Florida governor's race. The key catalyst is the Florida Republican primary election, typically scheduled for August 2026, which would resolve most uncertainty about Trump's endorsement priorities in this race.
- ›Trump has endorsed multiple 2026 Senate candidates (Collins in Georgia, Barr in Kentucky) at relatively high probabilities (62¢, 51¢), suggesting he is actively making endorsements in 2026 races
- ›James Fishback's relative prominence and alignment with Trump's stated priorities is unclear compared to other 2026 Florida candidates Trump might target
- ›Florida's gubernatorial primary occurs in August 2026, creating a hard deadline for Trump's endorsement decision in this specific race
- ›Trump's historical pattern shows selective rather than universal endorsements, particularly in executive races where he may defer to sitting governors or national priorities
- ›The 19-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (27%) and Polymarket (8%) suggests significant disagreement among traders about Fishback's likelihood of receiving Trump's support
What moved the line
- Jun 19Candace Owens↓9pp16→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (9% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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