PoliticsWinner-take-all · 2 outcomes2 contractsKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses May 24, 2026 · 15d

Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between May 3, 2026 and May 9, 2026

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 5% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

Above 0

0¢runner-up 3¢leader 5¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

3¢

Above 1

Spread

2pp

contested

24h volume

$41K

liquid

Closes

May 24, 2026

15 days

Venue

Kalshi

2 bound

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

Above 034¢Above 13¢

Top 2 candidates by current price · 4d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will the President sign more than

2 contracts$41K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between May 3, 2026 and May 9, 2026?: Above 0

KXEOWEEK-26MAY09-0

5¢−45pp$39KK→

Will the President sign more than 1 Executive Orders between May 3, 2026 and May 9, 2026?: Above 1

KXEOWEEK-26MAY09-1

3¢−46pp$2KK→

What moved the line

May 8Above 1↓46pp49→3¢ · Kalshi
May 8Above 0↓45pp79→34¢ · Kalshi
May 7Above 0↑4pp75→79¢ · Kalshi
May 6Above 0↑3pp72→75¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 2 contracts (5% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.

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