Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between May 3, 2026 and May 9, 2026

Analysis

This market asks whether the U.S. President will sign at least one executive order during the week of June 21–27, 2026. The 83% probability reflects high confidence that at least one order will be issued, though markets for higher thresholds (2+ orders) drop sharply to 25%, suggesting uncertainty about volume. Presidential executive order activity typically correlates with legislative cycles, scheduled policy announcements, and responses to judicial or economic developments. The probability sits well above 50% because presidents sign executive orders frequently—averaging multiple per week historically—making zero orders during a full week an outlier scenario. Resolution depends on official White House announcements and Federal Register publication of any signed orders during the specified week. Near-term catalysts include scheduled legislation debates, regulatory deadlines, and any emergency declarations or policy shifts that might trigger executive action.

• ›Historical baseline: U.S. presidents have signed multiple executive orders per week on average, making zero orders in any given week statistically uncommon
• ›Contract structure shows declining confidence at higher thresholds (83% for >0, 57% for >1, 25% for >2), indicating market uncertainty about order frequency rather than likelihood of any action
• ›Volume concentrated in the >0 and >1 contracts ($558 and $952 in 24h volume), suggesting active disagreement about whether typical weekly activity will occur
• ›No scheduled legislative crises, recess periods, or known policy pauses mentioned for the June 21–27 window that would suppress routine executive activity
• ›Resolution depends entirely on White House publication and Federal Register official record during the specified calendar week

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