Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between May 3, 2026 and May 9, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This market asks whether the U.S. President will sign at least one executive order during the week of June 21–27, 2026. The 83% probability reflects high confidence that at least one order will be issued, though markets for higher thresholds (2+ orders) drop sharply to 25%, suggesting uncertainty about volume. Presidential executive order activity typically correlates with legislative cycles, scheduled policy announcements, and responses to judicial or economic developments. The probability sits well above 50% because presidents sign executive orders frequently—averaging multiple per week historically—making zero orders during a full week an outlier scenario. Resolution depends on official White House announcements and Federal Register publication of any signed orders during the specified week. Near-term catalysts include scheduled legislation debates, regulatory deadlines, and any emergency declarations or policy shifts that might trigger executive action.

• ›Historical baseline: U.S. presidents have signed multiple executive orders per week on average, making zero orders in any given week statistically uncommon
• ›Contract structure shows declining confidence at higher thresholds (83% for >0, 57% for >1, 25% for >2), indicating market uncertainty about order frequency rather than likelihood of any action
• ›Volume concentrated in the >0 and >1 contracts ($558 and $952 in 24h volume), suggesting active disagreement about whether typical weekly activity will occur
• ›No scheduled legislative crises, recess periods, or known policy pauses mentioned for the June 21–27 window that would suppress routine executive activity
• ›Resolution depends entirely on White House publication and Federal Register official record during the specified calendar week

What moved the line

• Jun 15Above 0↓34pp72→38¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 16Above 1↓20pp33→13¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 16Above 0↓18pp38→20¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 14Above 0↑17pp55→72¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 17Above 0↓11pp20→9¢ · Kalshi

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How we compute these odds