Will Mercedes AMG Motorsport win the F1 Constructors Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 95% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
95%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 21, 2026
89 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Mercedes AMG Motorsport win the F1 Constructors Championship
Will Mercedes AMG Motorsport win the F1 Constructors Championship?: Mercedes AMG Motorsport
KXF1CONSTRUCTORS-26-MER
Analysis
This 48% probability indicates that Mercedes AMG Motorsport has approximately even odds of winning the 2026 F1 Constructors Championship compared to not winning it. The probability reflects Mercedes' competitive position relative to rivals like Ferrari and other teams currently in the championship fight. The championship outcome depends on how Mercedes' car performance develops through the season, driver consistency and avoiding mechanical failures, and how competitors' development trajectories compare. The season progresses through August and September with multiple races that will clarify which teams possess genuine pace advantages versus temporary form. By season-end in December, the constructors points will definitively determine which team finishes first, making actual race results the primary driver of probability movement.
- ›Current points gap between Mercedes and the championship leader as of August 2026
- ›Relative performance trends across recent races showing whether Mercedes is gaining or losing pace versus Ferrari and other frontrunners
- ›Remaining race count and points available to close any deficit or extend a lead
- ›Driver performance consistency and reliability records for Mercedes drivers versus competitors through the season
- ›Scheduled technical regulation changes or mid-season upgrades that could shift competitive balance between teams
What moved the line
- Sep 17Mercedes AMG Motorsport↑3pp93→96¢ · Kalshi
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Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (95% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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