Will Mercedes AMG Motorsport win the F1 Constructors Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
2 contracts
Closes
Dec 21, 2026
165 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Ferrari win the F1 Constructors Championship
Will Ferrari win the F1 Constructors Championship?: Ferrari
KXF1CONSTRUCTORS-26-FER
Cluster 2
Will Mercedes AMG Motorsport win the F1 Constructors Championship
Will Mercedes AMG Motorsport win the F1 Constructors Championship?: Mercedes AMG Motorsport
KXF1CONSTRUCTORS-26-MER
Analysis
This probability indicates that Mercedes AMG Motorsport is given roughly a 31% chance to win the 2026 Formula 1 Constructors Championship. The current assessment reflects Mercedes' recent performance trajectory, their technical capabilities in responding to regulation changes, and competitive pressure from teams like Red Bull, Ferrari, and McLaren. Key factors influencing this probability include Mercedes' success with new power unit regulations, driver performance consistency, and mid-season performance trends. The primary uncertainty will be resolved through actual race results throughout the 2026 season, with particular attention to early races that typically establish competitive positioning and the summer break progress reports that reveal technical development effectiveness. Teams' upgrades and performance adjustments during the season will provide continuous data to reassess this probability.
- ›Mercedes' power unit performance relative to competitors under 2026 technical regulations
- ›Constructor championship points differential compared to top rivals after first quarter of season races
- ›Reliability of Mercedes' new hybrid power unit design compared to Ferrari, McLaren, and Red Bull
- ›Driver consistency between Lewis Hamilton and the second Mercedes driver in scoring points
- ›Effectiveness of Mercedes' mid-season upgrades as evidenced by performance gains between summer break and final races
What moved the line
- Jul 5Mercedes AMG Motorsport↓4pp88→84¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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