Will the price of Jean Paul Gaultier Le Male Elixir be above $100 in 2026
Leader sits at 96% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 70%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $110
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
70¢
Above $70
Spread
26pp
contested
24h volume
$3
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
101 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the price
Will the price of Versace Eros be above $70 in 2026?: Above $70
KXFRAGRANCE-27VER-70
Will the price of YSL Y be above $140 in 2026?: Above $140
KXFRAGRANCE-27-140
Will the price of YSL Y be above $130 in 2026?: Above $130
KXFRAGRANCE-27-130
Will the price of YSL Y be above $110 in 2026?: Above $110
KXFRAGRANCE-27-110
Will the price of YSL Y be above $100 in 2026?: Above $100
KXFRAGRANCE-27-100
Will the price of Jean Paul Gaultier Le Male Elixir be above $140 in 2026?: Above $140
KXFRAGRANCE-27JPG-140
Will the price of Jean Paul Gaultier Le Male Elixir be above $130 in 2026?: Above $130
KXFRAGRANCE-27JPG-130
Will the price of Jean Paul Gaultier Le Male Elixir be above $110 in 2026?: Above $110
KXFRAGRANCE-27JPG-110
Will the price of Versace Eros be above $120 in 2026?: Above $120
KXFRAGRANCE-27VER-120
Will the price of Versace Eros be above $110 in 2026?: Above $110
KXFRAGRANCE-27VER-110
Will the price of Versace Eros be above $100 in 2026?: Above $100
KXFRAGRANCE-27VER-100
Will the price of Versace Eros be above $90 in 2026?: Above $90
KXFRAGRANCE-27VER-90
Will the price of Versace Eros be above $80 in 2026?: Above $80
KXFRAGRANCE-27VER-80
Analysis
This prediction represents a strong market expectation that Jean Paul Gaultier Le Male Elixir will retail for more than $100 by the end of 2026. The high probability reflects current pricing trends in the luxury fragrance market, where premium designer scents typically command prices in this range, and the contract's recent trading activity suggests confidence in this outcome. The main uncertainty centers on potential price adjustments by retailers or changes in currency valuations that could affect USD pricing. A key catalyst would be observing actual retail prices in major markets during the second half of 2026, particularly any official price announcements or shifts in premium fragrance positioning. The gap between the $100 threshold (89%) and the $110 threshold (56%) indicates traders see meaningful probability that the fragrance will exceed $100 but with less certainty about substantially higher prices.
- ›Current luxury designer fragrances in this product line typically range from $90–$150 retail in major markets
- ›Trading volume on the $100 contract is higher than competing fragrance contracts, suggesting more certainty or attention on this specific threshold
- ›The fragrance pricing reflects both brand positioning and currency fluctuations; USD strength or weakness could materially impact the threshold
- ›Retail pricing decisions by Jean Paul Gaultier and major department stores between Q3 and Q4 2026 will directly determine resolution
- ›The 33-point gap between the $100 outcome (89%) and $110 outcome (56%) reveals market uncertainty about where the price will actually settle
What moved the line
- Sep 17Above $70↑69pp2→71¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above $80↑35pp2→37¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above $130↑27pp2→29¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Above $130↓26pp29→3¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above $130↑24pp4→28¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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