Will Philippe Brun win the primary to select the French pôle socialiste’s candidate for the 2027 presidential election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$25
4 contracts
Closes
Oct 1, 2027
420 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the primary to select the French pôle socialiste’s candidate for the 2027 presidential election
Cluster 2
Will Boris Vallaud win the primary to select the French pôle socialiste’s candidate for the 2027 presidential election
Cluster 3
Will François Hollande win the primary to select the French pôle socialiste’s candidate for the 2027 presidential election
Cluster 4
Will Olivier Faure win the primary to select the French pôle socialiste’s candidate for the 2027 presidential election
Analysis
This represents the estimated likelihood that Philippe Brun will emerge as the Socialist Party's official candidate for France's 2027 presidential election. Brun is positioned as a moderate alternative in a crowded primary field that includes Raphaël Glucksmann (13¢), Olivier Faure (20¢), and several former prime ministers. His 14% probability reflects limited current visibility compared to better-known candidates, though primary dynamics remain fluid. The party's selection process and endorsements from regional federations will significantly influence outcomes. Key catalysts include any formal campaign announcements, party convention decisions, and polling developments among socialist voters in the coming months leading to the primary vote.
- ›Brun currently has lower name recognition and media coverage than leading contenders like Glucksmann and Faure based on contract pricing disparities
- ›Olivier Faure's 20¢ contract indicates perceived frontrunner status, with other candidates (Glucksmann 13¢, Brun 14¢) clustered within narrow margins
- ›The primary outcome depends on Socialist Party internal voting mechanisms and endorsement patterns from regional party sections, which remain unpredictable
- ›Trading volume on Brun's contract is relatively moderate, suggesting limited market conviction and significant uncertainty remaining
- ›Former prime ministers like Cazeneuve and Hollande retain establishment credibility despite lower current odds, potentially fragmenting the moderate vote
What moved the line
- Aug 7Raphaël Glucksmann↑4pp25→29¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Raphaël Glucksmann↓3pp27→24¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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