Will Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 be at or below $20/MTok in 2026
Leader sits at 41% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$25/MTok or below
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
$20/MTok or below
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
280 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 be at or below $
Will Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 be at or below $20/MTok in 2026?: $20/MTok or below
KXGBT55OY-27-NA-20
Will Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 be at or below $10/MTok in 2026?: $10/MTok or below
KXGBT55OY-27-NA-10
Will Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 be at or below $15/MTok in 2026?: $15/MTok or below
KXGBT55OY-27-NA-15
Will Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 be at or below $25/MTok in 2026?: $25/MTok or below
KXGBT55OY-27-NA-25
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that OpenAI's GPT 5.5 output tokens will cost $20 or less per million tokens by end-2026. The 19% price reflects skepticism that pricing will reach this threshold, with markets assigning higher probability (38%) to staying below $25/MTok. Pricing depends on model efficiency gains, competitive pressure, and OpenAI's pricing strategy post-release. The contract resolves upon GPT 5.5's official launch and published pricing; if the model releases before year-end 2026, actual pricing terms will determine the outcome. If launch delays beyond 2026, the contract expires unresolved. Near-term resolution depends on OpenAI's announcement timing and whether pricing undercuts current GPT-4 rates substantially enough to hit the $20 threshold.
- ›GPT 5.5 must launch before December 31, 2026 with publicly available output token pricing to enable contract resolution
- ›Current output token pricing for GPT-4 Turbo is approximately $0.03/1K tokens ($30/MTok), so $20/MTok requires a 33% price reduction or efficiency improvement
- ›Competitive pricing from Claude 3 and other models, along with volume-based discounting trends, influences whether OpenAI targets aggressive pricing at or below $20/MTok
- ›Model inference efficiency and computational cost improvements directly correlate to published output token pricing
- ›No official launch date or pricing announcement for GPT 5.5 has been confirmed as of June 2026, creating uncertainty about resolution timing
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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