Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$564K
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
76 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?: Byron Donalds
KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD
Analysis
This probability indicates a roughly even chance that Congressman Byron Donalds will win the Republican primary for Florida's 2026 gubernatorial race. The 50% pricing reflects uncertainty about whether Donalds can consolidate support among conservative primary voters against other potential candidates. Factors driving the probability include Donalds' existing congressional platform and name recognition in Florida politics, weighed against whether other Republican figures with stronger statewide records will enter the race. The main catalyst determining this outcome will be the official filing deadlines and primary election date in 2026, which will clarify the actual field of candidates and voter preferences. Until candidates formally declare and campaign activity intensifies, markets will likely remain relatively balanced unless significant political developments shift perceptions of Donalds' viability compared to alternatives.
- ›Byron Donalds currently represents Florida's 19th congressional district but has not previously run statewide; his gubernatorial primary viability depends partly on whether he can expand beyond his existing constituent base
- ›The Republican primary field remains unsettled with no confirmed major alternatives yet formally declared, making it difficult for markets to price relative frontrunner status
- ›Florida's 2026 gubernatorial primary filing deadlines and election dates will be concrete milestones that clarify the actual candidate field and voter preferences
- ›Donalds' voting record, constituent service approval ratings, and fundraising capacity relative to other potential Republican candidates will be observable factors affecting primary competitiveness
- ›Major Florida political endorsements from party establishment figures or other statewide officials could materially shift primary dynamics and probability estimates
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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