Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$33K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
131 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?: James Fishback
KXGOVFLNOMR-26-JFIS
Cluster 2
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?: Byron Donalds
KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD
Analysis
This market reflects an estimated 32% chance that Byron Donalds will secure the Republican nomination for Florida Governor. Donalds, a U.S. Congressman, enters a field where other candidates like James Fishback are also competing for the nomination. The probability reflects uncertainty about candidate viability, fundraising capacity, primary endorsements, and voter preference in Florida's Republican primary electorate. Key factors include whether Donalds can differentiate himself from other declared or potential candidates, his ability to secure party establishment support versus grassroots backing, and how well he performs in early polling and primary contests. The Republican primary process—including candidate filing deadlines, debate participation, and primary election results—will provide concrete data points that resolve much of this uncertainty.
- ›Candidate field composition: whether other major figures enter or exit the race before filing deadlines
- ›Early polling numbers among Florida Republicans and name recognition relative to competitors
- ›Fundraising totals and donor support indicators from quarterly FEC disclosures
- ›Endorsements from state party leadership, elected officials, and influential conservative figures
- ›Primary election results and vote share in early contests or the general primary itself
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (50% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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