Will Labour win the 2026 Arbroath & Broughty Ferry by-election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 18, 2027
364 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Labour win the 2026 Arbroath & Broughty Ferry by-election
Will Labour win the 2026 Arbroath & Broughty Ferry by-election?: Labour
KXARBROATHBY-26JUN18-LAB
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Labour will win the Arbroath & Broughty Ferry by-election scheduled for 2026. The 32% assessment sits between the SNP's dominant position at 84% and the Conservatives' minimal 3% chance, suggesting Labour is viewed as a distant second contender in what remains an SNP-favored seat. The probability would shift based on demographic changes, campaigning effectiveness, and whether Labour can consolidate anti-SNP votes in a historically competitive region. The by-election itself—triggered by an incumbent departure or vacancy—represents the key moment when actual voting patterns will clarify whether market expectations align with voter behavior. Until the contest occurs, the probability reflects current polling, constituency composition, and historical voting trends rather than confirmed outcomes.
- ›SNP currently holds 84% implied probability, suggesting this is treated as SNP's seat to lose under baseline conditions
- ›Labour's 32% probability positions it as the main challenger, well ahead of Conservative 3%, indicating vote-splitting dynamics favor SNP retention
- ›Historical voting in Arbroath & Broughty Ferry and recent Scottish electoral trends will determine whether SNP's structural advantage persists
- ›Campaign events, candidate quality, and local issues emerging between now and election day could shift vote distributions materially
- ›By-election timing and turnout composition—particularly whether it attracts core SNP voters or energizes Labour supporters—will be the primary outcome determinant
What moved the line
- Jun 18Labour↑12pp3→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (15% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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