Will legislation that, upon becoming law, completes, extends, or restores appropriations coverage across all 12 regular appropriations acts, whether temporarily or for the full fiscal year become law before Oct 1, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

Markets are pricing an 86% probability that comprehensive appropriations legislation covering all 12 regular appropriations acts becomes law by October 1, 2026. This reflects historical patterns where Congress typically passes spending bills before fiscal year-end deadlines, though timing remains uncertain. The probability declines sharply for earlier dates—only 49% for passage by September 26—suggesting traders expect last-minute legislative activity rather than early agreement. The primary driver is the September 30 fiscal year deadline, which creates urgency for passage. Downward pressure would come from legislative gridlock, partisan disputes over spending levels, or procedural delays. The key uncertainty is whether Congress will pass a continuing resolution (temporary measure) or seek comprehensive appropriations, with the latter being more difficult to negotiate.

• ›September 30, 2026 fiscal year deadline creates hard deadline for appropriations action; historically Congress passes spending legislation near this date
• ›Contract pricing shows sharp probability decline from 86% (Oct 1) to 49% (Sep 26), indicating traders expect resolution in final days rather than early passage
• ›Continuing resolutions (temporary extensions) satisfy the resolution criteria, which is more achievable than full appropriations bills and would lower legislative hurdles
• ›Historical baseline: Congress has passed all 12 appropriations acts on time in only 4 of the past 30+ years, making last-minute passage or CRs the norm
• ›Partisan control of Congress and disagreements over specific funding allocations could force shorter-term continuing resolutions rather than comprehensive legislation

What moved the line

• Aug 5Before Dec 1, 2026↑19pp68→87¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Before Nov 1, 2026↑19pp67→86¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Before Oct 9, 2026↑18pp66→84¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Before Oct 16, 2026↑18pp67→85¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Before Oct 1, 2026↑17pp65→82¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds