Will Adam Kurtz be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Tennessee
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 45% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
45%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
2 contracts
Closes
Aug 6, 2027
407 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Carnita Atwater be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Tennessee
Will Carnita Atwater be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Tennessee?: Carnita Atwater
KXGOVTNNOMD-26-CATW
Cluster 2
Will Jerri Green be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Tennessee
Will Jerri Green be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Tennessee?: Jerri Green
KXGOVTNNOMD-26-JGRE
Analysis
This market reflects the perceived likelihood that Adam Kurtz will secure the Democratic nomination for Tennessee governor. At 27%, the probability suggests moderate competition within the Democratic primary field, with other candidates viewed as having stronger positioning. Key factors driving this level include Kurtz's current name recognition and organizational infrastructure relative to other potential Democratic candidates in Tennessee, a state where Democrats face structural challenges in statewide elections. The nomination process will depend heavily on candidate entry decisions, funding availability, and primary turnout patterns. The critical catalyst will be the official primary election date and filing deadlines set by Tennessee election officials, typically occurring months before the general election. Democratic primary outcomes in Tennessee often reflect broader regional political trends and voter engagement levels during non-presidential years.
- ›No major Democratic candidate has yet formally announced for the Tennessee governor race as of mid-2026, creating uncertainty about the final field composition
- ›Tennessee's Democratic primary electorate size and geographic distribution will significantly influence nomination dynamics compared to general election viability
- ›Kurtz's fundraising totals and endorsements from established Tennessee Democratic figures relative to competing candidates will serve as concrete measures of institutional support
- ›Voter turnout in the Democratic primary versus Republican primary could shift nomination probability depending on which party generates higher engagement
- ›Filing deadlines and the official primary election date set by Tennessee authorities will represent the key resolution events for this market
What moved the line
- Jun 20Jerri Green↑3pp80→83¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Jerri Green↓3pp83→80¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (45% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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