Will Aly Richards be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
543 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Mike Pieciak be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont
Will Mike Pieciak be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?: Mike Pieciak
KXGOVVTNOMD-26-MPIE
Cluster 2
Will Amanda Janoo be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont
Will Amanda Janoo be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?: Amanda Janoo
KXGOVVTNOMD-26-AJAN
Cluster 3
Will Aly Richards be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont
Will Aly Richards be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?: Aly Richards
KXGOVVTNOMD-26-ARIC
Analysis
This 26% probability indicates that markets currently assess there is roughly a one-in-four chance that Aly Richards will win the Democratic primary for Vermont's governorship. The outcome depends heavily on Richards' name recognition and fundraising performance relative to other Democratic candidates, as well as incumbent party dynamics and whether any stronger establishment-backed challengers enter the race. The primary election itself will provide the definitive resolution, though candidate announcements and early polling in the coming months will clarify the competitive landscape. Market pricing suggests skepticism about Richards' path to the nomination, implying traders expect other candidates to be better-positioned or more viable within the Democratic primary electorate.
- ›Whether Aly Richards announces a formal campaign and demonstrates measurable fundraising by Q3 2026
- ›The number and profile of other Democratic candidates who enter the primary race
- ›Early polling data from Vermont Democratic voters regarding candidate preferences and name recognition
- ›Richards' performance in candidate forums, debates, or public appearances ahead of the primary
- ›Endorsements from major Vermont Democratic figures and establishment organizations
What moved the line
- May 6Mike Pieciak↓11pp19→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Aly Richards↑4pp56→60¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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