Who will win the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election
Leader sits at 69% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Therese Terlaje
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
Tony Ada
Spread
47pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
418 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election
Analysis
Josh Tenorio is priced at 33% to win Guam's 2026 gubernatorial election, meaning the market assigns roughly one-in-three odds to his victory. The relatively even distribution across five candidates—with Tenorio leading but Therese Terlaje at 25% and others between 8–14%—suggests high uncertainty about the outcome. Guam's gubernatorial elections are shaped by local economic issues, historical voting patterns, and candidate appeal, particularly around issues like military buildup, tourism, and fiscal management. The election itself will occur in November 2026, about four months from now. Major campaign developments, endorsements, or shifts in candidate viability could narrow or widen the gap between frontrunners. Current trading volume is minimal except on the Agustin contract, indicating low overall market engagement so far.
- ›Josh Tenorio leads at 33% but no candidate exceeds 50%, indicating fragmented support and material uncertainty
- ›Therese Terlaje is only 8 percentage points behind the leader at 25%, representing a strong alternative, while three other candidates split remaining probability
- ›The election date (November 2026) is approximately four months away, leaving substantial time for campaign dynamics, debates, or endorsements to shift probabilities
- ›Trading volume is near-zero on four of five contracts, suggesting limited liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads that may not reflect true underlying consensus
- ›Guam's small electorate and high participation by local political networks mean insider polling or community endorsements could prove disproportionately influential relative to broader patterns
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (69% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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