Will Jarrett Keohokalole be the Democratic nominee for HI-01
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
450 days
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Ben Fatula be the Democratic nominee for HI-01
Will Ben Fatula be the Democratic nominee for HI-01?: Ben Fatula
KXHIPRIMARY-01D26-BFAT
Cluster 2
Will Della Au Belatti be the Democratic nominee for HI-01
Will Della Au Belatti be the Democratic nominee for HI-01?: Della Au Belatti
KXHIPRIMARY-01D26-DBEL
Analysis
This probability represents the chance that Jarrett Keohokalole wins the Democratic primary for Hawaii's 1st Congressional District. Keohokalole is currently positioned as a competitive candidate, trailing frontrunner Ed Case (51%) but significantly ahead of Ben Fatula (3%). The outcome depends primarily on primary election dynamics, endorsements, fundraising, and voter preference shifts in the months ahead. The Democratic primary election will occur during Hawaii's August 2026 primary date, which will definitively resolve this question by determining the actual nominee through voter results.
- ›Ed Case holds a 9-point probability lead over Keohokalole, suggesting Case maintains structural advantages or polling strength as the current frontrunner
- ›Keohokalole and Case together account for 93% of Democratic nominee probability, indicating these two are clearly the main contenders with minimal viable paths for other candidates
- ›Primary election timing is August 2026, providing approximately 2.5 months for campaign dynamics, fundraising totals, endorsements, and voter engagement to potentially shift candidate momentum
- ›Fundraising reports and FEC filings between now and the primary will provide objective data on relative campaign resources and donor support
- ›Early voting or pre-election polling conducted in Hawaii during summer 2026 could indicate shifting voter preferences before the primary vote occurs
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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