Will Boaz Bismuth win the top nationwide vote-getter in the 2026 Likud primary for its 26th Knesset candidate list

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract reflects the likelihood that Boaz Bismuth will receive the most votes in the Likud party primary determining the top position on its 2026 Knesset candidate list. At 7%, it positions Bismuth as a minor contender compared to frontrunners Amir Ohana (28%) and Yariv Levin (23%). The relatively low probability likely reflects Bismuth's current standing within Likud's internal political hierarchy and public visibility among party members. The primary outcome will depend on how Bismuth's profile and support evolve relative to established rivals, and whether any political developments shift the preferences of Likud voters. The actual primary election will definitively resolve this question by revealing the nationwide vote distribution among candidates.

• ›Amir Ohana and Yariv Levin command 51% combined probability, suggesting they are the primary contenders with established positions in the party leadership
• ›Boaz Bismuth's 7% probability indicates limited current support relative to the frontrunners, based on available polling or member sentiment data
• ›The remaining probability dispersed among other candidates (Karhi 3%, Chikli 3%, others) suggests limited competition outside the top tier
• ›Low trading volume on Bismuth's contract ($0 in 24-hour volume) indicates sparse market interest and potentially limited information flowing to traders about his candidacy
• ›The primary election date and any interim developments in Likud politics or changes in candidate positioning could significantly shift probabilities between now and the vote

What moved the line

• Aug 6Amir Ohana↑8pp29→37¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 6Yariv Levin↓3pp21→18¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 7Amir Ohana↑3pp37→40¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 2Boaz Bismuth↓3pp4→1¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 3Boaz Bismuth↑3pp1→4¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds