Will the Hang Seng Index be at least HK$24,100 in June 2026
Leader sits at 86% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least HK$24,100
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
At least HK$24,200
Spread
73pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$5
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
5 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Hang Seng Index be at least HK$24
Will the Hang Seng Index be at least HK$24,500 in June 2026?: At least HK$24,500
KXHSI-26JUN30-24500
Will the Hang Seng Index be at least HK$24,200 in June 2026?: At least HK$24,200
KXHSI-26JUN30-24200
Will the Hang Seng Index be at least HK$24,100 in June 2026?: At least HK$24,100
KXHSI-26JUN30-24100
Analysis
Markets assess a 76% probability that Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index will close at or above HK$24,100 by the end of June 2026. This threshold represents a modest gain from recent levels, reflecting moderate optimism about Chinese equity valuations over the next six months. The probability distribution across contracts—with declining odds at higher price levels (63% at HK$24,200, 47% at HK$24,400)—suggests traders view significant upside as less likely than stabilization. Key drivers include mainland China's economic growth trajectory, policy stimulus measures, and global interest rate expectations. The precise resolution will depend on whether the Hang Seng closes above or below HK$24,100 on the final trading day of June 2026, making the index's response to Q2 corporate earnings and any government announcements critical to uncertainty around this level.
- ›Current Hang Seng level relative to HK$24,100 strike and distance to June 30, 2026 resolution date
- ›Mainland China's Q2 2026 GDP growth data and industrial production figures relative to consensus expectations
- ›People's Bank of China monetary policy stance and any announced stimulus or rate adjustments in April-June 2026
- ›Probability distribution across price tiers shows only modest conviction above HK$24,200, indicating relatively tight expected range
- ›Trading volume concentration in the HK$24,100-24,200 band versus sparse activity above HK$24,400 reflects where market disagrees most
What moved the line
- Jun 19At least HK$24,200↑49pp14→63¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22At least HK$24,200↓43pp66→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24At least HK$24,100↓34pp78→44¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19At least HK$24,100↑33pp48→81¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23At least HK$24,500↓22pp34→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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