Hull City AFC vs. Norwich City FC - More Markets
Leader sits at 33% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Kansas City
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
Kansas City
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$962
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 22, 2027
242 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC
Analysis
This 34% probability reflects market expectations that Kansas City wins the AFC West division in the 2026 NFL season. The Chiefs' probability is anchored by their recent divisional success and roster strength, balanced against competition from other AFC West teams like the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos. The probability would move higher if Kansas City demonstrates strong performance in preseason or early regular-season games, and lower if key injuries or roster changes affect their competitive standing. The main uncertainty resolver is the NFL regular season itself, which runs from September 2026 through January 2027, with the division winner determined by playoff seeding in early January. Trading volume remains modest, suggesting limited market interest in this specific contract compared to broader championship markets.
- ›Kansas City's recent AFC West dominance (won division in multiple recent seasons) provides a baseline expectation but faces competition from division rivals with comparable roster investments
- ›The 34% price implies Kansas City is favored but not heavily—competitors retain meaningful probability mass, suggesting genuine competitive uncertainty in the division
- ›Preseason performance and injury reports from July-August 2026 will likely shift this probability as teams' actual game-day rosters become clear
- ›The contract's low 24-hour volume ($132) indicates minimal recent trading activity, meaning the price may reflect older information rather than current market consensus
- ›Division winners are determined by regular-season win-loss records (September 2026-January 2027), making strength-of-schedule and head-to-head matchups material factors
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (33% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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